Because JD Martinez has Mega Bust written all over him.


He hit 45 home runs in 432 at-bats as a 30 year old.

He slugged 140 points over his career high. He isn't worth anything close to the money that he's going to get. And he's at the end of his prime. The guy is an absolute disaster waiting to happen.

hes been a solid hitter for 4 years now since his swing change. I get being at the end of his prime worry.. I'm not too worried next 2 years. His swing has been praised as one of the best in the game. I don't he fades that quick

sounds like martinez is getting 5/130 from boston

First off, Hanley is a fine 1B. Hopefully he platoons with Moreland over there. But if they do sign JD, I think the move is to trade JBJ or try and move Hanley’s contract. If/when the Sox make the JD move, that could set off several other moves, as well.

I’d hate to be the team that ends up giving Harper a 10 year deal next year. Guy is always hurt. He’s not going to age into his 30’s very well.

Lots of teams have been setting aside room for a Harper or Many run. Its time yang while everyone is ying'n and capture this years FA while teams are pinning something that only 1 or 2 teams can win.

Big market advantage is not as much with amount of revenue sharing double taxes.

Cobb started the offseason as a “below the radar” guy and now seems to be the top pitcher in this market Everyone is terrified of giving Arietta or Darvish 5 years.

Yup. Nobody wants to pay those salaries anymore. Especially for guys that are hit-or-miss. Lance Lynn and Cobb are nice pitchers, but hardly centerpieces of a staff.

So are we going to wait until pitchers and catchers are ready to report before we get another major free agent signing? Are the owners colluding? Or are they simply biding their time and hanging onto their dough for the expected bounty of free agents that go on the market after the 2018 season?

So far we have only a handful of players (in alphabetical order) command deals of three or more years:

Jay Bruce / Mets 3 yrs @ $39M
Tyler Chatwood / Cubs 3 yrs @ $38M
Zack Cosart / Angels 3 yrs @ $38M
Wade Davis/ Rockies 3 yrs @ $52M
Jake McGee / Rockies 3 yrs @ $27M
Mike Minor / Rangers 3 yrs @ $28M
Carlos Santana / Phillies 3 yrs @ $60M
Bryan Shaw / Rockies 3 yrs @ $27M
Justin Upton / Angels 5 yrs @ $103M

All we can conclude out of that is that the Rockies have done a lot of retooling in their bullpen!

What about these remaining unsigned players?

Jake Arrieta
Lorenzo Cain
Alex Cobb
Yu Darvish
Greg Holland
Eric Hosmer
Jonathan Lucroy
Lance Lynn
J.D. Martinez
Mike Moustakas

While this is a really weak crop compared to next year, there are certainly teams out there that would benefit from any one or more of these player's services.

The question is when will the logjam break?

Jake Arrieta
Dodgers 4 years $110M
Lorenzo Cain
Mariners 4 years $65M
Alex Cobb
Brewers 4 years $45M
Yu Darvish
Cubs 5 years $125M
Greg Holland
Cardinals 4 years $42M
Eric Hosmer
Royals 6 years $128M
Jonathan Lucroy
Brewers 3 years $40M (3rd year club option)
Lance Lynn
Rangers 4 years $50M
J.D. Martinez
Red Sox 5 years $130M
Mike Moustakas Cardinals 5 years $85M

There have been reports by Ken Rosenthal and others that the Diamondbacks have been one of the more “persistent” teams with interest in Manny Machado. Brandon Drury is one name mentioned, but as reported here previously, Arizona would not give up Jake Lamb.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported that there have been no extension talks with franchise player Paul Goldschmidt, and there may not be a guarantee that they will make an all-out effort to lock him up. But perhaps the D-Backs are waiting to see how the J.D. Martinez talks go first. Maybe they have only room for one – or maybe they want both. Their TV deal, which helped them take Zack Greinke from the rival Dodgers, would seem to give them a shot. They have been trying to retain Martinez.

Inside Baseball from Jon Heyman takes a look around MLB, with notes, news, rumors and more from (nearly) all 30 teams. For thoughts on the slow free-agent market, including some observations from Scott Boras, click here.

And now, around MLB …

Arizona Diamondbacks.
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There have been reports by Ken Rosenthal and others that the Diamondbacks have been one of the more “persistent” teams with interest in Manny Machado. Brandon Drury is one name mentioned, but as reported here previously, Arizona would not give up Jake Lamb.
Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reported that there have been no extension talks with franchise player Paul Goldschmidt, and there may not be a guarantee that they will make an all-out effort to lock him up. But perhaps the D-Backs are waiting to see how the J.D. Martinez talks go first. Maybe they have only room for one – or maybe they want both. Their TV deal, which helped them take Zack Greinke from the rival Dodgers, would seem to give them a shot. They have been trying to retain Martinez.

Atlanta Braves

Yes, the Marlins had the gall to request baseball’s top prospect Ronald Acuna in Christian Yelich talks. But word is, so has everyone else who has a top young established MLB player/star. Besides, it only takes a second to ask. And a second to reject.

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles seemed to get a relative bargain at $16 million on superstar third baseman Manny Machado (at least compared to what other superstars nearing free agency got in arbitration; Josh Donaldson and Bryce Harper were both over $20 million).
They also played it tough with Zach Britton, limiting his raise to $600,000 to $12 million following his Achilles injury, which will cause him to miss the first half of the year. Releasing him wasn’t an option since Britton hurt himself running/working out, but the reality is that $12 million might still be pricey for a half year.
The Orioles still have work to do with two of their better young players. Jonathan Schoop filed at $9 million and the team at $7.5 million, while Kevin Gausman filed at $6.225 million and the team at $5.3 million. The Orioles, who have a stellar arbitration record, are not afraid to go to a hearing but are not a strict file-and-trial team.

Boston Red Sox

Agent Scott Boras, who generally doesn’t discuss offers or non-offers, did say the report of a Red Sox offer of $100 million over five years for J.D. Martinez was “not accurate.” That does sound quite a bit light, as Yoenis Cespedes got $110 million for four years ($27.5 million per year) despite having a much lower OPS in his walk year – though in this market you never know what someone might try to offer. The other issue for Boston is that Martinez prefers to play the outfield, and he’d be a DH in Boston.
There is quite a feeding frenzy over Andrew Benintendi, who is seeking an agent after his old agent, Jason Wood, was fired by CSE following allegations he was videotaping players in the shower at his St. Louis home, as Robert Murray of FanRag first reported. Meanwhile, Wood is seen as someone who will need to find another profession at this point.
Mookie Betts filed at $10.5 million and the Red Sox at $7.5 million. Betts is a great player and the best right fielder in at least the AL, but it could be a tough case. Kris Bryant probably gives him a chance with his $10.85 million settlement, but Bryant has a Rookie of the Year, MVP and World Series, and those things matter in arbitration. Buster Posey broke through originally with a similar set of honors/achievements to get $8 million, so you can see where Boston’s case is headed. Great player, but he also did sink to .264 last year.

Oct 5, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Boston Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts (50) hits a double during the fourth inning against the Houston Astros in game one of the 2017 ALDS playoff baseball series at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Chicago Cubs

The Cubs are generous with their employees, and that includes their players. Kris Bryant’s $10.85 million is very reasonable, and perhaps even generous, considering Bryant had only 29 home runs and 77 RBI last year. Bryant is a special player who’s won Rookie of the Year and MVP, and was the best player on the team that won the World Series to break a 108-year curse – the most famous curse in the history of sports.
The Cubs are building an excellent bullpen, and the re-signing of Brian Duensing, for $7 million over two years, aids that cause. They’d earlier added Brandon Morrow, who was brilliant in the postseason, and Steve Cishek, a sometime-closer. The only question about their bullpen now is who will close: Morrow, off his brilliant season and postseason in L.A., likely gets the first crack at it. Cishek and Pedro Strop are other candidates. The Cubs also have been mentioned as one of a few possibilities for free-agent closer Greg Holland, though the likelihood of that happening isn’t known.
The idea of Bryce Harper potentially signing with the Cubs was mentioned in this space recently and was talked about a lot at Cubs convention. But the reality is, it may not be so likely after all.
The Cubs are still looking for a top starter – with their own Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish seen as their top two choices.
The Cubs benefited for years from all those home runs Sammy Sosa was hitting. And now they want an apology from him before letting him back into the fold for allegedly taking the steroids that enabled him to hit those home runs. That would be fine – if the Cubs would like to return the money they made marketing Sosa at the time.

Cincinnati Reds

Scooter Gennett has not settled with the Reds in arbitration, but he could become a candidate for a multiyear deal off his career year for his hometown team. He would be open to it. Gennett was the team’s Clemente nominee in addition to all the other pluses, so it’s still hard to see them taking him into a hearing room.

Cleveland Indians

It isn’t unusual for players to have awards packages in their contracts. Money for MVP, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers. But the $100,000 for Comeback Player of the Year in Melvin Upton’s contract makes perfect sense because he is looking for just that – a comeback.
The Indians offered Carlos Santana $36 million for three years to start but were willing to go higher – just not to the $20-million-a-year it got to with the Phillies.

Colorado Rockies

Charlie Blackmon was part of the group of three-year, four-year and five-year arb-eligible position players who made a big score with his settlement. Or it seemed that way, anyway.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers’ midsummer trades look better in hindsight, writes Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.
Jose Iglesias settled at $6.225 million, also according to Fenech. He appears to be playing out the string in Detroit and could be a trade candidate at midseason.

Houston Astros

The Astros talked about Chris Archer and Danny Duffy before landing Gerrit Cole. Cole will be much better in Houston, many believe.

Miami Marlins

Marlins president Michael Hill has been busy with trade talk involving Yelich and also catcher J.T. Realmuto, but is guaranteeing nothing regarding a trade.
As a file-and-trial team, the Marlins will be heading to arbitration with the three players they were unable to come to an agreement with — Justin Bour, Realmuto and Dan Straily.

Sep 28, 2017; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto (11) throws the ball to first base for an out in the third inning against the Atlanta Braves at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers are definitely looking at some of the bigger players on the market, but their plans remain to be “opportunistic.” They’d consider Jake Arrieta at the right price, but for today see Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn as more realistic for them.
They are willing to consider some things you wouldn’t expect, too, and they’ve been linked to Mike Moustakas (by Jim Bowden) and Lorenzo Cain (by Ken Rosenthal). They likely reached out to both, but to add Moustakas they’d presumably have to trade Travis Shaw (the Yankees would make sense as a party interested in a third baseman at a low cost), who emerged as a star last year, and someone close to the situation said he’d be “very surprised” if Shaw wasn’t on the team next year. The Brewers are deep in the outfield, and Shaw was one of their better players at third. Center field prospect Lewis Brinson was untouchable last year. Sounds like a long shot for either Moustakas or Cain.
They do feel like they’ve added some pitching depth with Jhoulys Chacin, Yovani Gallardo, Boone Logan and others, so are looking at upgrades anywhere they can find them now.