Post by Zig on Jul 28, 2014 11:28:28 GMT -5
By Bobby Ronaghy
July 27, 2014 4:10 pm
In a league where parity reigns supreme, playoff turnover is the expectation not the exception. Certain teams like the New England Patriots are mainstays in the postseason, but many divisions have been rotating winners for nearly a decade. Since 2005, the NFC East has been won by the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins and Eagles. With many returning playoff teams bringing back the same young talent, this season has the potential to buck those trends. By narrowing the list down to the four least likely teams to return to the playoffs, I will examine the direction of each franchise and the reasons for them to regress after last season. Often the strength of schedule can be a major determining factor in how a season will play out, and with the concentration of stronger teams in the NFC and AFC West, that will undoubtedly have an effect this year. Injuries are another unpredictable yet crucial key that can derail a team. But all things equal, there are still certain teams that are on the rise and hungry to build on their success from last season, while others were more satisfied with their runs last year and complacency could settle in.
Kansas City Chiefs – After a promising first season with Andy Reid and Alex Smith becoming the new faces of the franchise, the Chiefs seem to be on the rise, but a 2-5 finish in 2013 and first round playoff loss in devastating fashion raises a few interesting questions in Kansas City. The defense started last season strong, but once the competition got better, they were exposed. That unit lost a few key players including Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. And with a schedule that includes Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers four times, they will be tested early and often. The Chiefs lost all four games to those division foes last season, and face the equally strong NFC West in four other games, so the schedule will not make it easy on them this year.
The offense should maintain its level of consistency and production as last year, and possibly improve in the second year of the Reid and Smith partnership, but with many prolific offenses around the league these days, defense will be a bigger indicator of a team’s chances for success. There is certainly plenty of individual talent with pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali and playmaking safety Eric Berry, but as a unit, I expect a dip in overall production on defense. This will put Alex Smith to the test more often, which should benefit his numbers but take a little away from all world fantasy back Jamaal Charles, who just received a contract extension and may lose some motivation as often happens after players get paid. I expect a flip in records between the Chargers and Chiefs this season, and nine wins will not be enough for a repeat playoff appearance for Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers made a significant jump in the third season with Ron Rivera as coach and Cam Newton as quarterback, but the offseason that followed has revealed a few causes for concern. The wide receiver position was gutted with the losses of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, and the biggest free agent name they would add is Jerricho Cotchery, a career journeyman. The first round of the draft brought Kelvin Benjamin out of FSU, a big and rangy target who may fit better with Cam Newton’s still-developing accuracy. The rushing attack is still a committee, with Super Cam getting plenty of opportunities for his signature end-zone celebration when they get close to the goal line. Tight end Greg Olsen should be in line for a career year with as Cam gets comfortable with the new receiving corps.
Reigning defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly leads a defensive front seven that is arguably the best in the NFL, but questions remain about the possible suspension of Greg Hardy, their sacks leader from last season. And an already vulnerable secondary lost two starters in cornerback Captain Munnerlyn and safety Mike Mitchell. Factor that in with the fact that they play a first place schedule and six games in a competitive NFC South, and the chances of a Carolina repeat as NFC South champs are limited. The Saints are the favorite with Drew Brees and an improving defense, and the Falcons and Bucs are both expected to improve substantially with better health in Atlanta and a proven winner as head coach in Tampa. Expect the Panthers to take a step back in a tough division, even a last place finish is a possibility, though I expect somewhere around eight wins.
Indianapolis Colts – Of all the teams that cracked this list, the Colts have the easiest divisional road. The AFC South is easily the worst division in the conference, and arguably the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars showed some promise late last season, but their quarterback situation is still shaky at best unless Blake Bortles gets the starting job early and picks up the NFL game right away, which is unlikely. The Titans are better positioned to make a jump this season, but that will almost entirely depend on the health and development of Jake Locker. He has the supporting talent on offense and a defense that is capable of keeping games competitive, so if he can stay on the field, Tennessee could win the division for the first time since 2008. The Houston Texans are two years removed from back to back division titles, and they still have talented players on both sides of the ball, but they will also be reliant on a new quarterback to exceed expectations.
With quarterback Andrew Luck entering his third season, the Colts appear to be a team on the rise, but a closer look at his numbers reveals some flaws in his development. Despite some memorable comeback wins under his belt, Luck’s accuracy is still a work in progress and although they did add Hakeem Nicks and will have Reggie Wayne back from injury, the ground game was non-existent last season and did not improve much in the offseason, so the pressure will be on Luck to continue evolving. The Colts traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson, and with Donald Brown lost in free agency and Vick Ballard suffering another season-ending injury early in camp, T-Rich will need to improve his putrid yards per carry average for the Colts offense to have the balance needed to compensate for an inconsistent defense. Even if Luck improves as most expect, the schedule will be tougher and the total wins will drop again as they did last season from eleven to ten. This season, nine wins will put them a game behind the division winners in Tennessee, who will almost certainly lose their first playoff game at home.
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have improved by one game each season since Andy Dalton and A.J. Green arrived in 2011 and changed the identity of the franchise after a decade of Carson Palmer failing to live up to his talent and draft billing. Last season, they won the NFC North with an impressive 11-5 record and an undefeated home record, but lost their first playoff game to the Chargers in Cincinnati, raising questions about the long-term outlook of quarterback Andy Dalton after another disappointing performance in the playoffs. While his yardage and touchdown numbers in 2013 were a franchise record, he threw numerous inexplicable interceptions that cost them a few key games. While the talent around him continues to improve, Dalton will have to adjust to the departure of offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, who was replaced by Hue Jackson.
The defensive unit also lost its coordinator Mike Zimmer, as well as defensive linemen Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins. Beyond that, the Steelers and Ravens should get back to their winning ways and the Browns have a chance to surprise with a solid defense and the excitement that Johnny Manziel brings to the table once he is given the chance to start at quarterback in Cleveland. Some may argue that this is a make or break season for Dalton, but he has had an impressive start to his career and helped turn the Bengals into regular contenders since his arrival. I think it would be fair to compare him to the likes of Matt Ryan, and one setback season should not seal his fate, unless his numbers take a drastic turn for the worst. The final game of the season against the Steelers may well decide the winner of the AFC North, and I like Ben Roethlisberger and company to come out on top in that grudge match.
www.footballnation.com/content/four-nfl-playoff-teams-that-will-fall-short-2014/30096/?ref=email
July 27, 2014 4:10 pm
In a league where parity reigns supreme, playoff turnover is the expectation not the exception. Certain teams like the New England Patriots are mainstays in the postseason, but many divisions have been rotating winners for nearly a decade. Since 2005, the NFC East has been won by the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Giants, Cowboys, Eagles, Giants, Redskins and Eagles. With many returning playoff teams bringing back the same young talent, this season has the potential to buck those trends. By narrowing the list down to the four least likely teams to return to the playoffs, I will examine the direction of each franchise and the reasons for them to regress after last season. Often the strength of schedule can be a major determining factor in how a season will play out, and with the concentration of stronger teams in the NFC and AFC West, that will undoubtedly have an effect this year. Injuries are another unpredictable yet crucial key that can derail a team. But all things equal, there are still certain teams that are on the rise and hungry to build on their success from last season, while others were more satisfied with their runs last year and complacency could settle in.
Kansas City Chiefs – After a promising first season with Andy Reid and Alex Smith becoming the new faces of the franchise, the Chiefs seem to be on the rise, but a 2-5 finish in 2013 and first round playoff loss in devastating fashion raises a few interesting questions in Kansas City. The defense started last season strong, but once the competition got better, they were exposed. That unit lost a few key players including Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers. And with a schedule that includes Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers four times, they will be tested early and often. The Chiefs lost all four games to those division foes last season, and face the equally strong NFC West in four other games, so the schedule will not make it easy on them this year.
The offense should maintain its level of consistency and production as last year, and possibly improve in the second year of the Reid and Smith partnership, but with many prolific offenses around the league these days, defense will be a bigger indicator of a team’s chances for success. There is certainly plenty of individual talent with pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali and playmaking safety Eric Berry, but as a unit, I expect a dip in overall production on defense. This will put Alex Smith to the test more often, which should benefit his numbers but take a little away from all world fantasy back Jamaal Charles, who just received a contract extension and may lose some motivation as often happens after players get paid. I expect a flip in records between the Chargers and Chiefs this season, and nine wins will not be enough for a repeat playoff appearance for Kansas City.
Carolina Panthers – The Panthers made a significant jump in the third season with Ron Rivera as coach and Cam Newton as quarterback, but the offseason that followed has revealed a few causes for concern. The wide receiver position was gutted with the losses of Steve Smith, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, and the biggest free agent name they would add is Jerricho Cotchery, a career journeyman. The first round of the draft brought Kelvin Benjamin out of FSU, a big and rangy target who may fit better with Cam Newton’s still-developing accuracy. The rushing attack is still a committee, with Super Cam getting plenty of opportunities for his signature end-zone celebration when they get close to the goal line. Tight end Greg Olsen should be in line for a career year with as Cam gets comfortable with the new receiving corps.
Reigning defensive player of the year Luke Kuechly leads a defensive front seven that is arguably the best in the NFL, but questions remain about the possible suspension of Greg Hardy, their sacks leader from last season. And an already vulnerable secondary lost two starters in cornerback Captain Munnerlyn and safety Mike Mitchell. Factor that in with the fact that they play a first place schedule and six games in a competitive NFC South, and the chances of a Carolina repeat as NFC South champs are limited. The Saints are the favorite with Drew Brees and an improving defense, and the Falcons and Bucs are both expected to improve substantially with better health in Atlanta and a proven winner as head coach in Tampa. Expect the Panthers to take a step back in a tough division, even a last place finish is a possibility, though I expect somewhere around eight wins.
Indianapolis Colts – Of all the teams that cracked this list, the Colts have the easiest divisional road. The AFC South is easily the worst division in the conference, and arguably the worst in the NFL. The Jaguars showed some promise late last season, but their quarterback situation is still shaky at best unless Blake Bortles gets the starting job early and picks up the NFL game right away, which is unlikely. The Titans are better positioned to make a jump this season, but that will almost entirely depend on the health and development of Jake Locker. He has the supporting talent on offense and a defense that is capable of keeping games competitive, so if he can stay on the field, Tennessee could win the division for the first time since 2008. The Houston Texans are two years removed from back to back division titles, and they still have talented players on both sides of the ball, but they will also be reliant on a new quarterback to exceed expectations.
With quarterback Andrew Luck entering his third season, the Colts appear to be a team on the rise, but a closer look at his numbers reveals some flaws in his development. Despite some memorable comeback wins under his belt, Luck’s accuracy is still a work in progress and although they did add Hakeem Nicks and will have Reggie Wayne back from injury, the ground game was non-existent last season and did not improve much in the offseason, so the pressure will be on Luck to continue evolving. The Colts traded a first round pick for Trent Richardson, and with Donald Brown lost in free agency and Vick Ballard suffering another season-ending injury early in camp, T-Rich will need to improve his putrid yards per carry average for the Colts offense to have the balance needed to compensate for an inconsistent defense. Even if Luck improves as most expect, the schedule will be tougher and the total wins will drop again as they did last season from eleven to ten. This season, nine wins will put them a game behind the division winners in Tennessee, who will almost certainly lose their first playoff game at home.
Cincinnati Bengals – The Bengals have improved by one game each season since Andy Dalton and A.J. Green arrived in 2011 and changed the identity of the franchise after a decade of Carson Palmer failing to live up to his talent and draft billing. Last season, they won the NFC North with an impressive 11-5 record and an undefeated home record, but lost their first playoff game to the Chargers in Cincinnati, raising questions about the long-term outlook of quarterback Andy Dalton after another disappointing performance in the playoffs. While his yardage and touchdown numbers in 2013 were a franchise record, he threw numerous inexplicable interceptions that cost them a few key games. While the talent around him continues to improve, Dalton will have to adjust to the departure of offensive coordinator Jay Gruden, who was replaced by Hue Jackson.
The defensive unit also lost its coordinator Mike Zimmer, as well as defensive linemen Michael Johnson and Anthony Collins. Beyond that, the Steelers and Ravens should get back to their winning ways and the Browns have a chance to surprise with a solid defense and the excitement that Johnny Manziel brings to the table once he is given the chance to start at quarterback in Cleveland. Some may argue that this is a make or break season for Dalton, but he has had an impressive start to his career and helped turn the Bengals into regular contenders since his arrival. I think it would be fair to compare him to the likes of Matt Ryan, and one setback season should not seal his fate, unless his numbers take a drastic turn for the worst. The final game of the season against the Steelers may well decide the winner of the AFC North, and I like Ben Roethlisberger and company to come out on top in that grudge match.
www.footballnation.com/content/four-nfl-playoff-teams-that-will-fall-short-2014/30096/?ref=email
