Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 28, 2019 12:15:04 GMT -5
All right, I'll start with a few sentences about each club, followed by the predicted order with records for each club.
Quick Notes on Clubs
AL East
NY Yankees - Judge and Stanton may put up a '61ish run this year if they stay healthy. 50 or more from each or both very possible. They could hit 300 HR this year, especially in that ballpark. (Note: Luke Voit just put one in orbit for 3 in the first inning as I type). The bullpen is so strong that it can come in before the fifth inning and there are bridges all the way through. Good thing. James Paxton wins 17 but Luis Severino doesn't start until at least May. The rest are eminently hittable.
Boston - Hard to pick against them, but...hard to repeat with that team down the 95 always lurking. Betts had career year and is outstanding, but will probably drop to 110R, 25 HR, 96 RBI and .315. Some "drop" but in addition, J.D. Martinez will be fortunate to escape unscathed from his usual injury at some point, resulting in counting numbers drop of 20%. Chris Sale needs to have a full season of excellence. Nate Eovaldi could be a beast. The bullpen isn't in the same class as NY.
Tampa Bay - This team would win the Central. But they aren't in the Central. They need Charley Morton to be the Morton that was dominant for Houston and Tyler Glasnow will have to put it together for that rotation. Could use more balance on offense but they always show better as a sum of their parts than just the parts might indicate.
Toronto - Vlad Guerrero Jr. will create a huge buzz when he comes up, but otherwise these birds aren't going to make much noise.
Baltimore - It's not good for you to stare at a wreck. Bad for the neck and not polite either.
AL Central
Cleveland - What are they trying to do here, not win this division? Francisco Lindor may be out longer than they hoped and Jose Ramirez has already had nagging injuries. That offense is trash besides them. A "bird in the" Brad Hand is "worth two in the bush", especially for them because that once formidable bullpen is no more. Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger and Bieber are the only salvation here. That and the worst division in baseball.
Minnesota - "Chic" pick to unseat the Tribe. Sorry, but not with that pitching staff. Nelson Cruz and possibly Jonathan Schoop aid what shapes up as a decent lineup but Bryan Buxton has about run out of time to reach his potential. He's a big key because they need to score bushels of runs to be taken seriously.
Chicago - The "Eloy Jiminez" era begins without the usual delay for "clock" purposes. The Sox aren't going anywhere yet though. Maybe next year when hopefully for them Michael Kopech will return and capture the imagination he was about to do last year. Yoan Moncada has to be much better or they essentially gave Chris Sale away for next to nothing.
Kansas City - The "Go Go" Royals may be fun to watch with all those jackrabbits. They have some pieces in place but are only 1/5 into their rebuild though. In this division that's probably good for 70 wins. They'd be fortunate to better last year's 100 plus losses and cellar finish in the East (well maybe not cellar because Baltimore will own that for a while over there)...
Detroit - Ahh, my native team overachieved last year. How can I say that? Well they avoided 100 losses after offloading everyone not named Miggy, Nick or Michael Fulmer prior to last year and still managed that without Miguel Cabrera from May forward. They will not be as "fortunate" this time around because save for Michael Boyd and maybe Joe Jimenez, they have no pitching until you get down to AA. The lineup is a landfill and they will challenge the Orioles as the worst team in the AL.
AL West
Houston - Built for the long run, they have locked up most every star for the next 3 or 4 years and they are loaded with stars. They will fall short of 100 wins but just because the rotation behind Verlander and Cole is a bit less formidable. Expect a huge year from now healthy Jose Altuve and more of the same from Alex Bregman. Carlos Correa should rebound, he's young and uber talented. A threat still with Boston and New York to go all the way.
Oakland - I think we will see Bob Melvin looking all over the place trying to find some of the mirrors he used to get them to 97 wins last year. The daily lineup is decent but Matt Olsen is out a couple of months. I wonder how many HR Khris Davis would hit in NY? He hits plenty here even, though. Blake Treinen is the real deal in that pen and its good overall. That rotation though...
Los Angeles - This team has had bigger problems keeping pitchers healthy than any club not known as the Mets. Just the fact that Trevor Cahill is their opening day pitcher and Matt Harvey is their great hope in lieu of Ohtani and Richards in the sick bay tells you why nobody will take this team seriously despite a pretty good everyday lineup with the possible GOAT in Mike Trout and lots of other decent parts.
Seattle - Yusei Kikuchi is about the only interesting thing going on up there. Jerry diPoto has liquidated hell out of it, leaving Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon and a shell of the star pitcher known as Felix Hernandez about all that's left.
Texas - Thank their lucky stars the Tigers and Orioles are still in the league.
The Predictions and the Numbers
WINS LOSSES PCT GB W/RANGE RUNS RA RPG RAPG
AL East
New York Yankees 100 62 .617 - 86 106 879 662 5.43 4.09
Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 2 85 105 872 700 5.38 4.32
Tampa Bay Rays 85 77 .525 15 75 93 739 688 4.56 4.25
Toronto Blue Jays 77 85 .475 23 67 85 774 834 4.78 5.15
Baltimore Orioles 56 106 .346 44 48 68 627 884 3.87 5.46
AL Central
Cleveland Indians 86 76 .531 - 79 96 732 664 4.52 4.10
Minnesota Twins 79 83 .488 4 68 92 776 737 4.79 4.55
Chicago White Sox 76 86 .469 10 64 88 773 825 4.77 5.09
Kansas City Royals 70 92 .432 16 55 76 750 849 4.63 5.24
Detroit Tigers 58 104 .358 28 52 72 700 868 4.32 5.36
AL West
Houston Astros 94 68 .580 - 84 103 856 709 5.28 4.38
Oakland Athletics 84 78 .519 10 75 96 796 726 4.91 4.48
Los Angeles Angels 82 80 .506 12 75 93 803 779 4.96 4.81
Seattle Mariners 75 87 .463 19 64 85 756 796 4.67 4.91
Texas Rangers 63 99 .389 31 54 72 705 849 4.35 5.24
Playoff Teams - New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Houston.
Wins Losses Pct
AL Composite 1183 1247 .485
DIVISIONS
AL East Composite 416 394 .514
AL Central Composite 369 441 .456
AL West Composite 398 412 .491
AL Composite Runs Scored 11538
AL Composite Runs Allowed 11570
Quick Notes on Clubs
AL East
NY Yankees - Judge and Stanton may put up a '61ish run this year if they stay healthy. 50 or more from each or both very possible. They could hit 300 HR this year, especially in that ballpark. (Note: Luke Voit just put one in orbit for 3 in the first inning as I type). The bullpen is so strong that it can come in before the fifth inning and there are bridges all the way through. Good thing. James Paxton wins 17 but Luis Severino doesn't start until at least May. The rest are eminently hittable.
Boston - Hard to pick against them, but...hard to repeat with that team down the 95 always lurking. Betts had career year and is outstanding, but will probably drop to 110R, 25 HR, 96 RBI and .315. Some "drop" but in addition, J.D. Martinez will be fortunate to escape unscathed from his usual injury at some point, resulting in counting numbers drop of 20%. Chris Sale needs to have a full season of excellence. Nate Eovaldi could be a beast. The bullpen isn't in the same class as NY.
Tampa Bay - This team would win the Central. But they aren't in the Central. They need Charley Morton to be the Morton that was dominant for Houston and Tyler Glasnow will have to put it together for that rotation. Could use more balance on offense but they always show better as a sum of their parts than just the parts might indicate.
Toronto - Vlad Guerrero Jr. will create a huge buzz when he comes up, but otherwise these birds aren't going to make much noise.
Baltimore - It's not good for you to stare at a wreck. Bad for the neck and not polite either.
AL Central
Cleveland - What are they trying to do here, not win this division? Francisco Lindor may be out longer than they hoped and Jose Ramirez has already had nagging injuries. That offense is trash besides them. A "bird in the" Brad Hand is "worth two in the bush", especially for them because that once formidable bullpen is no more. Kluber, Bauer, Carrasco, Clevinger and Bieber are the only salvation here. That and the worst division in baseball.
Minnesota - "Chic" pick to unseat the Tribe. Sorry, but not with that pitching staff. Nelson Cruz and possibly Jonathan Schoop aid what shapes up as a decent lineup but Bryan Buxton has about run out of time to reach his potential. He's a big key because they need to score bushels of runs to be taken seriously.
Chicago - The "Eloy Jiminez" era begins without the usual delay for "clock" purposes. The Sox aren't going anywhere yet though. Maybe next year when hopefully for them Michael Kopech will return and capture the imagination he was about to do last year. Yoan Moncada has to be much better or they essentially gave Chris Sale away for next to nothing.
Kansas City - The "Go Go" Royals may be fun to watch with all those jackrabbits. They have some pieces in place but are only 1/5 into their rebuild though. In this division that's probably good for 70 wins. They'd be fortunate to better last year's 100 plus losses and cellar finish in the East (well maybe not cellar because Baltimore will own that for a while over there)...
Detroit - Ahh, my native team overachieved last year. How can I say that? Well they avoided 100 losses after offloading everyone not named Miggy, Nick or Michael Fulmer prior to last year and still managed that without Miguel Cabrera from May forward. They will not be as "fortunate" this time around because save for Michael Boyd and maybe Joe Jimenez, they have no pitching until you get down to AA. The lineup is a landfill and they will challenge the Orioles as the worst team in the AL.
AL West
Houston - Built for the long run, they have locked up most every star for the next 3 or 4 years and they are loaded with stars. They will fall short of 100 wins but just because the rotation behind Verlander and Cole is a bit less formidable. Expect a huge year from now healthy Jose Altuve and more of the same from Alex Bregman. Carlos Correa should rebound, he's young and uber talented. A threat still with Boston and New York to go all the way.
Oakland - I think we will see Bob Melvin looking all over the place trying to find some of the mirrors he used to get them to 97 wins last year. The daily lineup is decent but Matt Olsen is out a couple of months. I wonder how many HR Khris Davis would hit in NY? He hits plenty here even, though. Blake Treinen is the real deal in that pen and its good overall. That rotation though...
Los Angeles - This team has had bigger problems keeping pitchers healthy than any club not known as the Mets. Just the fact that Trevor Cahill is their opening day pitcher and Matt Harvey is their great hope in lieu of Ohtani and Richards in the sick bay tells you why nobody will take this team seriously despite a pretty good everyday lineup with the possible GOAT in Mike Trout and lots of other decent parts.
Seattle - Yusei Kikuchi is about the only interesting thing going on up there. Jerry diPoto has liquidated hell out of it, leaving Mitch Haniger, Dee Gordon and a shell of the star pitcher known as Felix Hernandez about all that's left.
Texas - Thank their lucky stars the Tigers and Orioles are still in the league.
The Predictions and the Numbers
WINS LOSSES PCT GB W/RANGE RUNS RA RPG RAPG
AL East
New York Yankees 100 62 .617 - 86 106 879 662 5.43 4.09
Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 2 85 105 872 700 5.38 4.32
Tampa Bay Rays 85 77 .525 15 75 93 739 688 4.56 4.25
Toronto Blue Jays 77 85 .475 23 67 85 774 834 4.78 5.15
Baltimore Orioles 56 106 .346 44 48 68 627 884 3.87 5.46
AL Central
Cleveland Indians 86 76 .531 - 79 96 732 664 4.52 4.10
Minnesota Twins 79 83 .488 4 68 92 776 737 4.79 4.55
Chicago White Sox 76 86 .469 10 64 88 773 825 4.77 5.09
Kansas City Royals 70 92 .432 16 55 76 750 849 4.63 5.24
Detroit Tigers 58 104 .358 28 52 72 700 868 4.32 5.36
AL West
Houston Astros 94 68 .580 - 84 103 856 709 5.28 4.38
Oakland Athletics 84 78 .519 10 75 96 796 726 4.91 4.48
Los Angeles Angels 82 80 .506 12 75 93 803 779 4.96 4.81
Seattle Mariners 75 87 .463 19 64 85 756 796 4.67 4.91
Texas Rangers 63 99 .389 31 54 72 705 849 4.35 5.24
Playoff Teams - New York, Boston, Tampa Bay, Cleveland and Houston.
Wins Losses Pct
AL Composite 1183 1247 .485
DIVISIONS
AL East Composite 416 394 .514
AL Central Composite 369 441 .456
AL West Composite 398 412 .491
AL Composite Runs Scored 11538
AL Composite Runs Allowed 11570
