11. Andrew McCutchen – Cubs. Three years, $45MM. Aside from Harper, Brantley and McCutchen are the best corner outfielders on the free-agent market. McCutchen, 32, is several years removed from his MVP-caliber stretch with the Pirates but remains a very good hitter. After nine seasons as the Pirates’ center fielder, McCutchen was traded to the Giants and switched to right field. After hitting only three home runs in the season’s first two months, Cutch went on to hit .259/.374/.447 in his final 452 plate appearances for the Giants and Yankees. He could fit with the Cubs, Indians, Rays, Cardinals, Braves, White Sox, or Phillies.



12. Yusei Kikuchi – Padres. Six years, $42MM. Kikuchi, a 27-year-old lefty starter, has pitched for Japan’s Seibu Lions for the past eight years. The Lions will reportedly honor Kikuchi’s request to be posted this winter, thus freeing him to negotiate with any MLB team. He battled shoulder issues this year and has only once exceeded this season’s innings total of 163 2/3. Kikuchi profiles as a mid-rotation arm in MLB. He’ll be the first player subject to the new NPB-MLB posting agreement, which should serve to lower fees for MLB teams by tying the player’s release fee to the size of his contract. For example, a $42MM contract would result in a release fee of $7.975MM, placing the total commitment in this scenario around $50MM. Kikuchi will draw interest from contenders and rebuilding clubs alike.



13. Josh Donaldson – Cardinals. One year, $20MM. Donaldson, 33 in December, presents a potential impact bat on a short-term deal. He’s a late blooming third baseman who became a star for the A’s in 2013 and won the AL MVP award in 2015 after a trade to the Blue Jays. He missed significant time due to a calf injury in 2017, but went nuts with 22 home runs over the final two months that year. Donaldson hit the DL this year in April with right shoulder inflammation and then went on the shelf again in late May for his calf. That involved a 60-day DL stint, with Donaldson being traded to the Indians before he was activated. Donaldson did make a brief but promising return to action late in 2018 and could land a multi-year deal on the strength of his offensive ability. That said, he’s arguably better served to take a one-year pact and re-establish his health; we’re guessing the famously competitive Donaldson will bet on himself. The Cardinals, Twins, Angels, Phillies, Braves, and White Sox could be options.



14. Charlie Morton – Phillies. Two years, $32MM. Morton, 35 in November, emerged as one of baseball’s top dozen strikeout artists (among starters) over the past two years with the Astros. Among those with 300 innings over that span, Morton ranks sixth with a 95.4 mile per hour average fastball velocity. He’s aged like a fine wine, adding velocity and changing his game from the ground-ball pitcher of his Pirates years. Morton, a family man with four children, wasn’t sure as of April whether he’d pitch in 2019. More recently, he’s said he will keep going, adding that he would like to re-sign with Houston. The Astros surprisingly chose not to issue a qualifying offer, which could be an indication that they’re thinking of moving on from Morton for some reason. Morton will entertain many two- or even three-year offers on the open market, especially unencumbered by a QO. If he doesn’t return to the Astros, Morton has cited proximity to his wife’s family in Delaware as a major factor. That could put the Phillies and Nationals as frontrunners.



15. Wilson Ramos – Astros. Three years, $36MM. With just a week left in a breakout 2016 contract season, Ramos tore his right ACL — the same one he’d torn four years prior. Dreams of a monster four or five-year deal evaporated, and Ramos took a two-year, $12.5MM guarantee with the Rays. He rounded back into form this year, catching nearly 800 innings for the Rays and Phillies and leading all backstops with a 131 wRC+. The 31-year-old seems primed for a solid three-year deal, perhaps with a team that can give his knees a break with some time at designated hitter. The Astros, Red Sox, Athletics, Angels, Rockies, or Dodgers could work, as could a return to D.C.



16. Marwin Gonzalez – Twins. Four years, $36MM. Gonzalez, 30 in March, has been a valuable super utility player throughout his seven-year Astros career. He’s capable of playing all four infield positions, as well as left field, prompting agent Scott Boras to nickname him “Swiss G.” A switch-hitter, Gonzalez has been every bit as productive as McCutchen and Brantley over the last two years, though much of his success is concentrated in a breakout 2017 season. Gonzalez was shockingly one of the dozen best hitters in baseball that year, but dropped back to a 104 wRC+ in 2018. He did at least manage a stronger 122 mark from June onward. Gonzalez has never reached 600 plate appearances in a season, nor has he tallied 700 innings at any one position. Whether it’s as a super utility player or a regular, Gonzalez is an easy fit onto more than half the rosters in baseball. The Twins, Cubs, Angels, Brewers, Tigers, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, and Rockies are among the many fits.



17. Jeurys Familia – Twins. Three years, $33MM. Familia, 29, excelled as the Mets’ closer from 2015-16, posting a 2.20 ERA and 9.8 K/9 in 155 2/3 innings. He was arrested on a domestic violence charge in November 2016, but the charge was dismissed the following month. The following year, MLB gave a statement on the matter and suspended Familia for 15 games. Early in the 2017 season, Familia was diagnosed with an arterial clot in his right shoulder, which resulted in surgery and more than three months on the DL. This year, Familia hit the DL in June for shoulder soreness, though he missed the minimum 10 days. He closed out his season in Oakland after a July trade to the A’s. Only a dozen relievers threw harder than Familia this year, and he could even be popular enough to warrant a four-year deal.



18. Zach Britton – Astros. Three years, $33MM. Britton might have been the best reliever in baseball upon the conclusion of his dominant 2016 season for the Orioles. The lefty had allowed just four runs in 67 innings, generating ground-balls at a historic 80 percent rate — the highest mark since the stat began being tracked. However, a strained forearm cropped up in April 2017, which quickly recurred after he was activated from the DL in May. He missed two months after that and was also shut down early in September with a knee injury. Worse yet, Britton ruptured an Achilles tendon in December 2017, delaying his 2018 debut until June 12th. He joined the Yankees’ elite bullpen in a July deal. Despite a 3.00 ERA over the past two seasons, Britton’s 7.3 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9 were unimpressive. However, he’s still throwing over 95 miles per hour from the left side, and he’s still getting ground-balls more than 70 percent of the time. Given Britton’s three-year stretch of dominance as the Orioles’ closer from 2014-16, his market should be robust even if he’s yet to return to form. There might not be a better arm to dream on in the current class. The Astros, Cubs, Red Sox, Twins, Angels, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Dodgers could be involved.



19. David Robertson – Mets. Three years, $33MM. Robertson, 34 in April, has been a paragon of durability, pitching 60+ relief innings in each of the past nine seasons. He became the Yankees’ closer in 2014, serving in that role for the White Sox as well until being traded back to New York in 2017. Robertson is difficult to hit and continually puts up huge strikeout rates, getting the most out of a fastball in the 92 mile per hour range due to incredible extension. Robertson has made the interesting choice to represent himself in free agency, and we think he has a good case for a three-year deal despite the fact that he’s entering his mid-30s. Robertson, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, and Adam Ottavino make up a second tier of relievers who should do quite well in free agency.



20. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Dodgers. Three years, $33MM. After dominating the Korea Baseball Organization with the Hanwha Eagles from 2006-12, Ryu was posted for MLB teams, and the Dodgers won his negotiating rights. The two sides hammered out a six-year deal, which went quite well for the first two seasons. Unfortunately, the big lefty made just one big league start from 2015-16 due to shoulder and elbow injuries. Those issues are in the rearview, but Ryu still only made 39 starts from 2017-18 due to hip, foot, and groin injuries. That said, Ryu was excellent in his 82 1/3 regular season innings this year, posting a 1.97 ERA, 9.7 K/9, and 1.6 BB/9. Given his injury history, teams may be reluctant to commit a third year to Ryu, who enters his age-32 season. However, that might be the cost of doing business given his success when he does pitch. He’ll need a team willing to tolerate health risk, and a return to the Dodgers could make sense for both sides. The Dodgers are obviously already rife with rotation options, but no team in the game has prioritized rotation depth — or shown a willingness to take health risks — like Los Angeles in recent seasons. And, retaining Ryu could make it easier for them to explore trading from that depth as they pursue other upgrades. The Dodgers’ choice to issue Ryu a qualifying offer suggests they are indeed interested in a “Ryu-nion.” Sorry, had to do it.

31. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Two years, $20MM. Murphy took his offense to another level with a ridiculous 2015 postseason, though his ensuing three-year contract with the Nationals never really lived up to the narrative that his October showing earned him millions. Perhaps it should have, because the improvement was real, and the Nats reaped the benefits with over 10 WAR from 2016-17. Murphy underwent knee surgery in October 2017, and Opening Day optimism disappeared as his recovery dragged out and resulted in a June 12th season debut. After some early scuffling, Murphy posted a 126 wRC+ over the season’s final three months, with the Cubs picking him up for the stretch drive. He’s a high-contact, professional hitter in today’s high-strikeout world. He also turns 34 in April and played a poor second base this year. It’s easy to see him landing in the AL, where he can moonlight at DH in addition to second base and perhaps first base. The Angels and Twins were among the teams we considered when pondering a landing spot.

32. Brian Dozier – Nationals. One year, $10MM. Looking at second basemen from 2014-17, only Jose Altuve was more valuable than Dozier. He compiled nearly 19 WAR for the Twins, smacking 127 home runs in that span. A solid four-year deal seemed possible for Dozier at one point, but his bat just died this year outside of July and August. The Twins shipped him to the Dodgers in the middle of that decent run. Now, the 31-year-old may be best-served looking for a one-year deal and prioritizing playing time as a way to rebuild value.

33. DJ LeMahieu – Tigers. Two years, $18MM. LeMahieu earned the Rockies’ starting second base job in May 2013, keeping the gig by virtue of strong defense despite providing little value at the plate. LeMahieu bumped up his offensive production starting in 2015, peaking with a batting title in ’16. Since then, he’s managed a 90 wRC+, which will likely remain his level for the next few years. The 30-year-old isn’t an exciting option at second base, but he should provide a steady two wins above replacement. LeMahieu has a chance at a three-year deal. If the Rockies let him go the Nationals, Tigers, and Twins could be options.

34. Joakim Soria – Mets. Two years, $18MM. Soria, 34, continues to find success with his combination of a high strikeout and low walk rate. He was able to avoid the long ball despite a precipitous drop in ground-ball rate this season, which he split between the White Sox and Brewers. With a fastball under 93 miles per hour, Soria isn’t a flashy choice, but he still provides plenty of value.

35. Mike Moustakas – Royals. Two years, $16MM. After hitting a Royals-record 38 home runs in 2017, Moustakas’ free agency went terribly awry. Despite a qualifying offer, MLBTR predicted a five-year, $85MM contract. Instead, the third baseman wound up back with the Royals on a one-year, $6.5MM deal. Sam Mellinger, talking to two league sources, said Moustakas turned down approximately $45MM over three years from the Angels. Agent Scott Boras told Mellinger, “There was never a multi-year contract offer made to Mike Moustakas by the Angels or any other major-league team.” Who you believe will color a prediction on what Moose can do this winter, after a slightly worse season but with no qualifying offer. A multi-year contract is a possibility here, but it seems clear today’s GMs don’t value Moustakas’ high-power, low-OBP profile as a premium skill set.

36. Lance Lynn – Rays. Two years, $16MM. Like Moustakas, Lynn was one of the free agents who got body-slammed by the 2017-18 market freeze. MLBTR projected a four-year, $56MM deal for Lynn coming off a solid season for the Cardinals, yet the righty fell to the Twins in March on a one-year, $12MM deal. He struggled in 20 starts for Minnesota, as his already-high walk rate got out of hand. The Twins sent him to the Yankees at the trade deadline. Lynn wound up making nine starts for New York, with a 4.60 ERA but a 2.17 FIP, 3.03 xFIP, 10.0 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. Despite the small sample, those peripherals are intriguing and should land Lynn a rotation job — if not a two-year deal — somewhere.

37. Cody Allen – Braves. Two years, $16MM. Allen dominated as the Indians’ closer from 2014-17, posting a 2.62 ERA, 12.1 K/9, and 120 saves. This year, an increase in home runs and walks allowed torched his value. Just 30 in November, Allen shouldn’t have a hard time finding a team willing to bet on a return to form. Perhaps his camp even prefers a one-year deal with an eye on reentering the market next season, but multiple years should still be possible if the goal is to take max dollars now.

38. Nick Markakis – Phillies. Two years, $16MM. Markakis had a couple of excellent early-career years with the Orioles, eventually landing a four-year deal with Atlanta after the 2014 season. The right fielder was a one-win type of player from 2015-17, but then for the first four months of 2018 Markakis unexpectedly posted a 129 wRC+. In truth, he’s probably a league average hitter, and he’ll turn 35 in November. Aging corner bats of this mold have not been valued highly on the free-agent or trade markets in recent years.

39. Derek Holland – Reds. Two years, $15MM. Holland, a 32-year-old southpaw starter, had a solid run in the Rangers’ rotation from 2011-13 before injuries torpedoed his next few seasons. Coming off a terrible year with the White Sox in 2017, Holland joined the Giants on a minor league deal in February. Due to injuries to the Giants’ veteran starters, Holland joined the rotation and wound up posting a 3.67 ERA and 8.5 K/9 in 30 starts. His 3.87 FIP and 4.07 xFIP lend some credence to the notion that he’s returned to his status as a viable starter, even if his ceiling seems limited.

40. Bud Norris – Indians. Two years, $12MM. Norris, 34 in March, has transitioned successfully from the rotation to the bullpen. This year for the Cardinals, he managed a 3.59 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.25 HR/9, and 42.6 percent ground-ball rate in 57 2/3 innings, including 28 saves. His ERA sat at 2.85 in August 28th and ballooned after a rough week in September. Another factor to consider is that Norris is decidedly old school in the clubhouse, and was revealed as Mike Matheny’s bullpen monitor in Mark Saxon’s July story for The Athletic. A two-year deal seems likely.

Give me Lemahieu and Pomeranz on a show me deal.

Love Pollack as a player, but stay the fuck away. Too injury prone.

Add Keuchel to Strasburg and Scherzer?

daaaaaaaaamn

wonder what kind of money will be flying around after last year when nobody want to spend


I need Jetes to give us Realmuto


good thread STF1

The #Nats officially announce closer Trevor Rosenthal's 1-year, $7 million contract with a vesting player option for $15 million in 2020.

That's a net loss.

Or is it a "Nat" loss?

I agree, but I cant see us doing that

Keller, Junis, Duffy, Kennedy are already in the rotation.  Plus they need to find out about Fillmyer, Skoglund, Lopez, Oaks, Barlow

Some eyebrows raised this evening when it was observed that the White Sox had unveiled a stage set at Chicago’s United Center featuring Bryce Harper’s name. As Chris Cwik of Yahoo Sports explains, there’s no reason to think this was the beginning of the roll-out of a signing; our readers from the south side can safely inform friends and neighbors that there’s nothing imminent. More likely, it’s part of a recruiting pitch for the popular young free agent, who is in Chicago today. The news shouldn’t be blown out of proportion, clearly, but that doesn’t mean it’s of no consequence. Evidently, the White Sox are serious enough pursuers that they have secured an in-person visit and are putting resources into a pitch. That certainly dovetails with recent reports and public statements from the organization indicating that the club is looking to spend. It also bodes well for Harper’s market that a team such as the White Sox is making a run at him even after he reportedly turned down a $300MM offer to remain in D.C.

The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.

As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.

Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospects) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.

Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.

While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.

It's only for two years until he can leave as an FA

and they aren't winning that division any time soon

If they can get a couple good prospects for him, they might be ok with it

Cant believe he is already 30.  First time free agent at 32.  Sucks for him

Stewie
3:14 Who's the A's opening day second baseman?
Jeffrey Todd
3:15 Y'know, I was struggling to address the 2B position in the Nationals outlook post I just published.
3:16 Now that Lowrie has new reps, that could re-set contract talks. I assume they'll do something - not just hand it off to Barreto - but it's so hard to guess because there are just dozens of possibilities. That's good news for teams like the A's and Nats that would probably like to have an everyday type but may not want to spend a ton.
LeMahieu, Dozier, Cabrera, Kinsler ...
3:17 Murphy, Gordon, Castro ...

steve
3:20 Do you think the Cardinal intrest in Harper is there or are they looking for a cheaper option.
Jeffrey Todd
3:21 STL reporters seem to think there's a legit shot. They have tried to land major FAs in the recent past. He fits.
3:22 So, I don't see why they wouldn't pursue him at least to the point that they feel comfortable. And I expect it'll be a fairly competitive level of interest

No one should take that washed up bum Pomeranz.  Red Sox truly fucked up signing him..

When you don't even get into a 19 inning game even though you were added to the roster you know you SUCK!

Pearce Back with the Red Sox on a 1 year $6.25 million deal