tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 12:00:18 GMT -5
About ten years ago, I was given an assignment in a Statistics course, studying in grad school.
We were asked to develop a statistical model in Excel based on "numerical events" that had to balance. There also had to be at least two parts to balance in "agreement". I figured that nothing could be a more perfect example than the standings in a baseball season, including runs scored vs runs against, and wins and losses.
Since then, I have liked to put one together prior to the start of the season. Sure, I could just predict the order that the teams would finish in, but the exercise makes you a bit more disciplined. I start by making a calculated guess on each team's final record and plug the numbers all in. Then I have to make adjustments so that the composite records of all the teams equal .500. Then I do much the same with "expected runs scored and runs against". I also include my "floor" and "ceiling" baselines for minimum and maximum expected wins per team.
Might sound a bit "geeky" but honestly math was my poorest subject. Swear to God. Anyway, here goes my predicted finish for the AL. A little "disclaimer" - None of this "balancing" will improve the accuracy of my forecast! Next page will be NL.
______________________________________________________
GOD it was a "cow" to line the columns up following the "Copy and Paste"!
2018 Predicted Major League Standings
American League
East Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 83 103 857 695 5.29 4.29
New York Yankees 95 67 .586 3 79 102 880 717 5.43 4.43
To***to Blue Jays 80 82 .494 18 65 87 745 770 4.64 4.75
Baltimore Orioles 77 85 .475 21 62 84 799 850 4.93 5.25
Tampa Bay Rays 62 100 .383 36 54 74 670 798 4.14 4.93
Central Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Cleveland Indians 101 61 .623 86 105 811 608 5.01 3.75
Minnesota Twins 84 78 .519 17 70 92 806 784 4.98 4.84
Chicago White Sox 77 85 .475 24 66 88 766 797 4.73 4.92
Kansas City Royals 64 98 .395 37 55 76 655 824 4.04 5.09
Detroit Tigers 59 103 .364 42 52 70 688 926 4.25 5.72
West Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Houston Astros 101 61 .623 86 105 874 687 5.40 4.24
Los Angeles Angels 87 75 .537 14 75 97 728 696 4.49 4.30
Seattle Mariners 82 80 .506 19 71 92 733 720 4.52 4.44
Oakland Athletics 77 85 .475 24 65 85 724 771 4.47 4.76
Texas Rangers 75 87 .463 26 63 85 728 799 4.49 4.93
Wins Losses Pct
AL Composite 1219 1211 .501
Wins Losses
MLB Totals 2430 2430
DIVISIONS W L Pct
AL East Composite 412 398 .509
AL Central Composite 385 425 .475
AL West Composite 422 388 .521
AL Composite Runs Scored 11464
AL Composite Runs Allowed 11442
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 13:32:52 GMT -5
National League
East Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Washington Nationals 99 63 .611 83 103 830 658 5.12 4.06
New York Mets 87 75 .537 12 74 95 719 642 4.44 3.96
Atlanta Braves 78 84 .481 19 69 89 785 839 4.85 5.18
Philadelphia Phillies 77 85 .475 22 68 86 738 775 4.56 4.78
Miami Marlins 56 106 .346 43 50 69 635 874 3.92 5.40
Central Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Chicago Cubs 95 67 .586 80 101 828 676 5.11 4.17
St. Louis Cardinals 88 74 .543 7 74 94 797 719 4.92 4.44
Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 .525 10 72 92 824 772 5.09 4.77
Cincinnati Reds 70 92 .432 25 56 77 789 860 4.87 5.31
Pittsburgh Pirates 63 99 .389 32 54 75 627 842 3.87 5.20
West Division
Win Range
Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG
Los Angeles Dodgers 97 65 .599 82 103 759 642 4.69 3.96
Colorado Rockies 84 78 .519 12 70 92 809 760 4.99 4.69
San Francisco Giants 83 79 .512 14 67 89 735 700 4.54 4.32
Arizona Diamondbacks 78 84 .481 19 64 87 732 756 4.52 4.67
San Diego Padres 71 91 .438 26 59 82 700 814 4.32 5.02
Wins Losses Pct
NL Composite 1211 1219 .498
W L Pct
NL East Composite 397 413 .490
NL Central Composite 401 409 .495
NL West Composite 413 397 .510
Nl Composite Runs Scored 11307
NL Composite Runs Allowed 11329
Remember this too. There are still a number of free agents unsigned at this late juncture. Things are still somewhat fluid and subject to change. What are your predictions?
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 15:28:17 GMT -5
AL East
Why I have them finishing in this position. Boston v New York is always compelling to watch. Some years more so than others. This year will be a vintage year to watch the games between these two antagonists. This is, to me, the only division that will be hotly contested, as the rich grow stronger and most everyone else gets weaker.
Red Sox - I love J.D. Martinez on that team. He balances out NY getting Stanton. Of course they still have Judge to go with Stanton, but the Red Sox lineup just needed a big power guy to drive in all the traffic that was left on base last year. That OF is the best defensively today. Plus I like their rotation better than the Yankees. David Price will never be what he was, but behind Sale and Pomeranz...that leaves them a real solid top 3. The bullpen must improve setting up Kimbrel, because I like NY's pen better overall.
Yankees - Tough to not have them first. They had the biggest run differential in baseball last year and now add Stanton. I don't buy Judge having as monster of a year. He slumped big time until picking it up in September but by then the pitching staffs were filled with call ups. He's good for 40 homers again but will hit about .255. I'd start giving Gary Sanchez reps at 1B in case Greg Bird can't get it done, and would groom him regardless. That bat is too valuable to have it waste in the event he gets too fatigued with catching. He doesn't have the athletic body like Yadier Molina or Buster Posey to withstand the rigors of catching daily for long. With that offense they can afford to carry Austin Romine's ABs as C. Middle infield needs a breakout by Gleybar Torres. Boston has a better rotation. NY the better pen. Frightening potential with this club.
Blue Jays - Steep drop off from the top two. Need Josh Donaldson to be healthy this year. They plunged to LAST in runs scored last year in the AL with him hurt a lot of the time, with Tulowitzki spending his usual more time on the DL than on the field and with the disappearance of Jose Bautista. Color me skeptical about Justin Smoak doing that again. Still, they got to score more than last year. Marcus Stroman and pray in that rotation. I like Roberto Osuna closing.
Orioles - Can they just get one decent SP? At this point I'd say no. Plus Zach Britton will be out until May at the earliest and possibly through July. Still can put crooked numbers on the board but will give up even more.
Rays - Publications have them winning 70 to 80 games. With what? Just trade Chris Archer already. Everyone else is gone. And now, top SP prospect Brent Honeywell could be out for the season with Tommy John. Looks like "Detroit South" from here.
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 18:50:47 GMT -5
AL Central Why I have them finishing in this position. Indians - This division is a runaway. The thing that the Indians have to be concerned about (barring Jose Berrios blossoming into a Cy Young winner in Minnesota, along with two starters that could even be a #4 for most any other team) is qualifying for the post season and then finishing the deal! The bullpen is excellent, although they'll miss Bryan Shaw. Then, they need Corey Kluber to pitch like he does in the regular season. Is it just me, or does he remind you of David Price in post season? Other concerns are getting Michael Brantley in 120 or more games. Same for Jason Kipnis. And, is Yonder Alonso a 28 HR guy, or the guy that averaged 9 a season prior to last season? Given my comments, you may wonder why I have them with as many wins as Houston. It's about the division. They get to play the other four "patsies" 18 times each! Twins - Up and coming team that will stall unless some other young pitchers develop behind Berrios. Ervin Santana is out until May or June. They should sign Jake Arrieta. But they won't and actually probably should not because management does not believe that they are a real contender! I mean, Jake would appreciate this "pitcher's park" a lot, and it would demonstrate seriousness and confidence by management in this team's core. But management remembers a few years ago when this team rose, only to fall and fall hard again, to 103 losses! I for one, don't blame them. The bullpen still a question mark. So, how about Greg Holland if they don't sign Arrieta? Same thought about management applies. Will Bryan Buxton continue to develop offensively? I say yes, think he's finally turned the corner. Miguel Sano may never be the same after the shin injury he had surgery for and he is now being investigated by MLB about an alleged assault that took place in 2015. Thank God for him and the Twins that Manfred is the commish...not Goodell!  This team can realistically win not many more games than they did last year (I have them winning one less and missing the playoffs) or they could fall to leading only the dismantled Detroit Tigers. White Sox - Rick Hahn has done it right. He has assembled so many prospects that some are going to pan out just because there are so many. Yoan Moncada is looking about ready to blossom. Pitching is a great concern. Lucas Giolito looked good late last season. Is it real or just a September fluke? Carlos Rodon was improving but starts on the DL. James Shields is just an innings eater. I think Reynolds Lopez (the other main draw in the Eaton deal with the Nats) will turn out to be better than Giolito and prove it this season. Now if they can just get Michael Kopech up to the big club and have him harness that 103 MPH fastball, then we're talking. The lineup has a stud in Jose Abreu, and some up and comers, like the three Garcia's (not related...also reportedly not Amigos or Stooges either...) Avisail will have some regression but will still be useful. Royals - The carcass of a champion is all that is left. Sure, Mike Moustakas is not officially gone yet, but he ain't coming back. This team would wind up in the cellar except the Tigers have a paid reservation to reside there for at least the next year or two...Its a race to see who rebuilds quickest. Looking at the farm systems, I think the Royals will keep Detroit on the bottom for a while. Tigers - Mick Jagger said it best. "Sad Sad Sad". There is Miguel Cabrera, a couple of light standards, the benches in each dugout (last time I looked at least...) and not much else. Yet they are still on the hook for nearly a QUARTER BILLION for Miggy and Jordan Zimmermann. No farm system. No hope anytime in the next several years. Looks like what happened after 1987. That took TWENTY YEARS to fix! |
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Post by Zig on Feb 23, 2018 19:13:50 GMT -5
that must have been hell to format Towner! But good stuff my man  the "table" feature takes some getting used to but can come in handy...you can add (delete) rows/columns...but it cant be frustrating too,,,have to "Save" often in case you mess up lol | Row 1 column 1 | Row 1 column 2 |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 19:37:53 GMT -5
that must have been hell to format Towner! But good stuff my man the "table" feature takes some getting used to but can come in handy...you can add (delete) rows/columns...but it cant be frustrating too,,,have to "Save" often in case you mess up lol | Row 1 column 1 | Row 1 column 2 |
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Thanks Z. I'll give it a go. BTW, if you'd like this Excel program I wrote, be happy to send it to you. It can be fun to play with! |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 23, 2018 20:30:36 GMT -5
AL West
Why I have them finishing in this position.
Astros - Team without a weakness. They'd win 105 but there is some competition in this division. Nobody really threatening to take first place, just a fairly solid group of teams. Only thing that looks soft is closer. Ken Giles is a misfit on a team with this kind of talent. He's got great stuff but his head is not in the right position to ever become elite, or even more than merely serviceable, not now and probably never. If he is off his game heading into the trade deadline, I'm going to Chris Devenski or the market. The rotation seemed like it wasn't deep enough before last August 31. Enter Justin Verlander, the real deal as a post season starting pitcher. And a throwback to days where a SP could dominate for 8 if not all 9 innings of a given game. People carped about them getting Gerrit Cole in the off season. Tell me he's not a #2 SP on all but maybe ten teams in baseball! Jose Altuve is HOF. Carlos Correa is off to a great start getting there. George Springer is great, but not good enough in some eyes because he will not fulfill expectations. He's still one of the dozen top OF's in the game. Alex Bregman's ceiling is really high. I have them repeating.
Angels - Really solid off season but it will take a miracle for them to run down the Astros. Shohei Ohtani is worth the attention. Lot of money but a ton of upside. Still, other than that I think they do not go as much "all in" if they are not competing with the cross town Dodgers. Ohtani better be the real deal because LA is hoping that Garrett Richards is back and that could be a chancy proposition. Otherwise it is a messy group overall. Ian Kinsler and Zach Cosart are nice adds but Ian has seen his best days and they are in the rear view mirror. Cozart is coming off a career year. Is it real? Well for starters he will not hit for power like he did in Cincinnati. Still, with Mike Trout, a great defensive SS who had a career year at the dish (Andrelton Simmons) and another debatable signing (Justin Upton) this team has enough horses to make them interesting. Even if some of them are nearing the "glue factory" (listening Albert Pujols?).
Mariners - What a great combination of speed and power! You have Jean Segura and Dee Gordon (acquired in the Miami "meltdown") and you have potentially 90 steals. And, both can hit! You got Nelson Cruz and Robinson Cano bashing homers with Kyle Seager. You got an up and coming closer talent in Edwin Diaz. Why is this team not destined for first place? Because Felix Hernandez is old and coming off injury...but not to star. Because James Paxton is the best starter but he can't finish a season without getting hurt. Pitching rules and those that have it can. Seattle doesn't, and they won't rule.
Athletics - Too many power hitters that can't do much in the field. They can get on base. Can't run though. No speed. They are named the "Athletics" but what is athletic about this crew? No Rickey Hendersons or "Campy" Campaneris types here. Still there are enough prospects coming up here that with all the hitting, they have a shot to make .500 in a game that places increasing premium on home run power.
Rangers - See Athletics, save for the great Adrian Beltre and Delino De Shields. Problem is one's 40 even though he's headed to the HOF. the other can't hit. Cole Hamels is fading and other than him the staff is meh...Bullpen has no closer.
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Post by Swamp Dragon on Feb 24, 2018 1:01:04 GMT -5
About ten years ago, I was given an assignment in a Statistics course, studying in grad school. We were asked to develop a statistical model in Excel based on "numerical events" that had to balance. There also had to be at least two parts to balance in "agreement". I figured that nothing could be a more perfect example than the standings in a baseball season, including runs scored vs runs against, and wins and losses. Since then, I have liked to put one together prior to the start of the season. Sure, I could just predict the order that the teams would finish in, but the exercise makes you a bit more disciplined. I start by making a calculated guess on each team's final record and plug the numbers all in. Then I have to make adjustments so that the composite records of all the teams equal .500. Then I do much the same with "expected runs scored and runs against". I also include my "floor" and "ceiling" baselines for minimum and maximum expected wins per team. Might sound a bit "geeky" but honestly math was my poorest subject. Swear to God. Anyway, here goes my predicted finish for the AL. A little "disclaimer" - None of this "balancing" will improve the accuracy of my forecast! Next page will be NL. ______________________________________________________ GOD it was a "cow" to line the columns up following the "Copy and Paste"! 2018 Predicted Major League Standings American League East Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 83 103 857 695 5.29 4.29 New York Yankees 95 67 .586 3 79 102 880 717 5.43 4.43 To***to Blue Jays 80 82 .494 18 65 87 745 770 4.64 4.75 Baltimore Orioles 77 85 .475 21 62 84 799 850 4.93 5.25 Tampa Bay Rays 62 100 .383 36 54 74 670 798 4.14 4.93 Central Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Cleveland Indians 101 61 .623 86 105 811 608 5.01 3.75 Minnesota Twins 84 78 .519 17 70 92 806 784 4.98 4.84 Chicago White Sox 77 85 .475 24 66 88 766 797 4.73 4.92 Kansas City Royals 64 98 .395 37 55 76 655 824 4.04 5.09 Detroit Tigers 59 103 .364 42 52 70 688 926 4.25 5.72 West Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Houston Astros 101 61 .623 86 105 874 687 5.40 4.24 Los Angeles Angels 87 75 .537 14 75 97 728 696 4.49 4.30 Seattle Mariners 82 80 .506 19 71 92 733 720 4.52 4.44 Oakland Athletics 77 85 .475 24 65 85 724 771 4.47 4.76 Texas Rangers 75 87 .463 26 63 85 728 799 4.49 4.93 Wins Losses Pct AL Composite 1219 1211 .501 Wins Losses MLB Totals 2430 2430 DIVISIONS W L Pct AL East Composite 412 398 .509 AL Central Composite 385 425 .475 AL West Composite 422 388 .521 AL Composite Runs Scored 11464 AL Composite Runs Allowed 11442 Going to have to remember floor and ceiling when I do my NFL predictions |
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Post by Deleted on Feb 24, 2018 11:09:27 GMT -5
Based on this model, TB, Tex, Oak, Det, KC, Mia, Pitt, and Cin have already been eliminated, in February. I guess hope does not spring eternal everywhere.
Pretty accurate too. It would literally take a miracle for any of these teams to have a shot. Texas is one of those teams that always seems to pull a rabbit out of its hat when nothing appears to be there, so maybe if any of them have a chance, it would be Texas.
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Mr mastodon farm
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Post by Mr mastodon farm on Feb 24, 2018 23:34:49 GMT -5
tigertowner is smarter than me
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Mr mastodon farm
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Post by Mr mastodon farm on Feb 24, 2018 23:40:54 GMT -5
good shit, Towner
Do you do this kind of thing for fantasy leagues?
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 27, 2018 11:06:58 GMT -5
good shit, Towner Do you do this kind of thing for fantasy leagues? Thanks brah - glad you liked it. As Far as fantasy, nah. I like Joe Pisapia's "Fantasy Baseball Black Book" better for fantasy purposes. I study his tiers and adjust them for my taste on my own list. Its more like a handwritten "cheat sheet". I will get back to summarizing the NL divisions shortly. Flu bug has bitten both me and the wife. First time in years. Sucks bad. |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Feb 27, 2018 11:11:07 GMT -5
Based on this model, TB, Tex, Oak, Det, KC, Mia, Pitt, and Cin have already been eliminated, in February. I guess hope does not spring eternal everywhere. Pretty accurate too. It would literally take a miracle for any of these teams to have a shot. Texas is one of those teams that always seems to pull a rabbit out of its hat when nothing appears to be there, so maybe if any of them have a chance, it would be Texas. Funny, it was just 2015 when publications were decrying that the NL had lost all competitive balance. Now it has spread to the AL. In fact, I think the AL would be more split in terms of talent, except as you point out, Texas is part of a division that overall has better teams 1-5 of any division in the game... I think any one the Angels, Mariners, Athletics or Rangers can finish second as easily as fifth. |
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 1, 2018 10:48:49 GMT -5
NL East
Why I have them finishing in this position.
Nationals - Just maybe. This could be the year the Nationals win it all. If Dave Martinez is a smart manager. They were never going anywhere with Dusty and Matt Williams running the show. Rare amount of batting and pitching talent in tandem. Manager and bullpen were the Achilles heel last year again. The bullpen was upgraded but is it good enough? Only other possible problem I see for a team coming off 97 wins is a downturn from Ryan Zimmerman. God, they can at least win one playoff series can't they?
Mets - How can I have them winning a wild card? One word. Pitching. De Grom was the only guy that did not miss a lot of time last year. Noah Syndergaard is back, throwing near triple digit heat. Zach Wheeler is healthy and throwing 97 MPH heat. Even the deposed "Dark Knight" Matt Harvey is throwing 96. I think their luck will be better this year. It could not have been much worse. They also lost Yoenis Cespedes for nearly half a season. Still unknown if Michael Conforto can be healthy before late May. Jeurys Familia was out a lot and ineffective. These guys by and large better contribute a lot though. This infield is badly undermanned and the OF is not much better. Team could just as easily finish fourth with my estimated low win range total of 74 as be a Wild Card.
Braves - Outstanding young talent looks to be coming to fruition now in 2B Ozzie Albies and RF Ronald Acuna. Freddie Freeman is as good a hitter as there is in baseball today at first. Still a lot of holes. Is Dansby Swanson still a prospect or was that a false alarm? Team sure could use a young SP like Sean Newcomb to blossom because that rotation is only scaring the Braves' pitching coach. The new park is not helping these guys. Julio Teheran probably wants to burn it down. Arodys Vizcaino seems to have emerged as a decent closer. Not a lot of ceiling here but they are improving.
Phillies - Could flip-flop with Atlanta. There is more pitching here for sure. Aaron Nola could have a really good year with more support. Nick Pavetta could become the #2 if his FIP is any indicator, and it often is. Eichoff, Velasquez and Eflin are much bigger questions. Team finally decided to let Hector Neris close, and that was a good move. Rhys Hoskins is the real deal, he will smack 35-45 home runs in that park. They really need rebounds by Maikel Franco and Odubel Herrera. Herrera could potentially make this a good OF because I think Nick Williams is for real and same for Aaron Altherr.
Miami - Not worthy of discussion. This team has all but disbanded. There is plenty of venom for Derek Jeter. I'll save it for 2020 if they still look like this because he has more than enough detractors for now.
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 8, 2018 9:48:43 GMT -5
NL Central-
Why I have them finishing in this position.
Cubs- Swapping fading Jake Arrieta out for Yu Darvish is a master stroke. Who knows whether or not Darvish will ever be the Cy Young winner many thought he'd become, but he still throws a steady 95+ and still has some ceiling. Forget about the World Series meltdown. He's a true #1. Jon Lester is not an ace any more but between him and Kyle Hendricks, that is a good #2 and #3, you pick the order. There is risk in having Brandon Morrow be the closer. He had a great campaign last year but it was as a set-up guy and the spotty injury-filled track record and the fact that he has never closed are red flags. Offensively there is a lot to like except they strike out too often collectively. But Ian Happ has got to play more, even if he Ks a lot. Zobrist should just be a super sub at this point.
Cardinals- They need Luke Weaver to step up to #2 starter quality. Carlos Martinez will be a Cy candidate soon as the ace. But Weaver is critical because Adam Wainwright might be through and Michael Wacha has fallen too. Luke Gregerson as closer? Please. They will sign somebody or trade by the all-star break. The hitting attack is bolstered with Marcell Ozuna, and should be solid. They could win the division but I say SP and closer will leave them in second place or 3rd because the team I have third, the...
Brewers - Bolstered an already solid every day lineup adding OF's Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. Yelich has the higher ceiling still, but got to love Cain still as a CF and base stealer. They need to deal Domingo Santana or Ryan Braun though, for some added pitching. Doubt Braun would command muich at this point though. Commendable that they went out and did what they did, but if the SP is not bolstered, can't see them higher than second. Too bad Jimmy Nelson will be out at least a couple of months because otherwise that rotation looks like a bunch of #3 and #4 starters. If Corey Knebel is 80% of what he was in 2017 then closer is in great hands. Set up looks good too.
Reds- Yes this team is on the rise but most of the prospects in their deep farm system are two years away. Two merit immediate consideration though. Luis Castillo came up and joined the rotation and immediately pitched like a #1. How he's 4th on their SP "depth chart" is beyond me. The others are all question marks big time. Only Anthony DeSclafini strikes me as notable. The other prospect that will likely make a bang this year is Nick Senzel. A 3B in his minor league career, he will be playing some SS for the big club. He may not start on the MLB roster but he's coming and he can hit. They have a solid closer in Raisel Iglesias, fair set up men and an offense that will do some banging, led by HOFer in-waiting Joey Votto, who is not through by a long shot.
Pirates- Like Miami, not worthy of discussion. It's criminal what is being done there. But then again, like in Miami, nobody turns out for this team at the turnstiles. Baseball is a revenue driven game as far as local $ are concerned and sadly this mix is not working, even with PNC Park - a jewel of a venue if there ever was one.
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Post by lemiwinks on Mar 23, 2018 12:30:44 GMT -5
You can never bet on injuries..........unless its the Mets rotation......
because of that, Phillies are my non chalk pick to sneak into a wild card.
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 26, 2018 9:26:31 GMT -5
Got to post my NL West summary.
Later today. I will also post a "Final" predicted 30 team finish before Thursday.
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 26, 2018 17:14:29 GMT -5
NL West -
The last installment. Left this division until last. Why? Because in my infinite wisdom, I knew there would be the most injuries and change in fortune in here. LIAR! It was just luck of the draw but that sentence about injury and change may turn out prescient just the same!
Why I have them finishing in this position.
Dodgers - Well, sometimes it sucks to come up second banana in the World Series. Justin Turner gets hit by a pitch and winds up with a fractured elbow. Best case scenario is return in mid-May. Really? I bet mid June. Cody Bellinger was exposed by smart pitching approach by the Astros in that WS. He will regress but remain a force. Batting average will drop to .260 ish though. They hope rookie RH pitcher Walker Buehler will make an impact by midseason as a starter with injury risks Rich Hill and another SP Kenta Maeda that looks less dependable than he was in 2016. Plus, they will miss Brandon Morrow, who starred as a setup and is now the Cubs' closer. Kenley Jansen is the best closer in the game but could be worn down by postseason workload. Thank God for the "Dodger in blue in the sky" that Clayton Kershaw looks 100%! Much closer race coming this year, but still the cream of the West.
Rockies - This team is a horse of a different color this year. Pitching may make a contender of them. Jon Gray could be the best SP they have had, ever. Forget the wild card blowup. Saying he could be "the best" is not saying a lot since Ubaldo Jiminez is the only SP that jumps from the past as outstanding, and that lasted for a year before they sent him to Baltimore and he imploded. But between him and German Marquez they may have more than one. Don't be too scared off by Marquez' 4.38 ERA. He has legit stuff, is young and has lots of upside. The hitting, when adjusted for parks, was a sorry 12th of 15 in the league. Expect Ian Desmond to help fix some of that, given good health. Most of their hitters are lacking when they leave the Rocky Mountains but don't look at all-world 3B Nolan Arenado here. He proves annually that he can hit 'em out of ALL parks, including Yellowstone! Welcome new closer Wade Davis. He's one of the best. They may finish within 5 of LA.
Diamondbacks - Similar to the Rockies. Pitching is moving on up. But will the humidor preserve their window of contending or wreck it? I think the loss of J.D. Martinez will be a more mitigating factor than the humidor. All right, it will certainly benefit Zach Greinke and Robbie Ray. In fact, when you look at the offense and realize that they also have Zach Godley in the rotation, it is probably a really good idea. Not sold on Taijuan Walker as the #4 though. Too many unrepeatable moving parts. But that offense scares nobody. It might if A.J. Pollock could play every day. Or if Jake Lamb could hit home runs away from the friendly confines. He may not hit near as many at home now, either. Paul Goldschmidt's OBP may rival Joey Votto now with no solid lineup protection. No proven closer. Too many question marks here.
Giants -Yeah, yeah wise guy. I know I have them ahead of Arizona but this is a revised list! One thing at a time, I'll fix that later! Madison Bumgarner goes down again, this time hit in the pitching hand by a batted ball. Jeff Samardzida is out for at least the first month too. Would have loved the signing of Evan Longoria...about four years ago. Would have love the signing of Andrew McCutchen, about four years ago. Loved this team, about four years ago. No closer. Declining team superstar (Posey). Last year, there was "Panic in Detroit". Now there will be Bummer- garnering and Panik in the City by the Bay. No speed. Little upside. Little chance.
Padres - Yeah, yeah Dinelson Lamet will win 15 games. Guess someone should have a shot. Better make a huge improvement in comment there, Dinny...They have a lot of power. Somehow (not so surprising in this homer happy era) they set a club record with 189 HRs last year. Bet you didn't know that! Eric Hosmer is still young and is likely a great addition. Clayton Richard is the ace? What was that about being a contender again? The best pitcher in town is reliever Brad Hand. Give them parting gifts for trying. In fact, they may yet pass that gang that "used to be Giants" but that's about as far as it goes.
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 26, 2018 19:27:53 GMT -5
HERE IS THE UPDATED ON MARCH 26, 2018 AL Spread Sheet... Angels out of playoff Wild Card. Twins in, playing the Yankees. Same result. Yankees win Wild Card. Then, Houston defeats NY again, this time in division round. Six games. Not seven. Gerrit Cole throws 7 strong, and gives up just one run and Ken Giles holds on for a change. Cleveland beats the Red Sox in seven after losing the division round to NY in '17, avenging what many perceived as a stunning upset by those Yankees in '17. Then Houston returns to the World Series, vanquishing the still empty Indians in seven games, despite two total late inning shutdowns by Cleveland's Andrew Miller and Cody Allen...one following yet another Ken Giles implosion during game six that sent it to the seventh game. American League East Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Boston Red Sox 97 65 .599 83 103 872 695 5.38 4.29 New York Yankees 96 66 .593 1 79 102 893 717 5.51 4.43 To***to Blue Jays 80 82 .494 18 69 87 765 770 4.64 4.75 Baltimore Orioles 77 85 .475 20 62 84 802 865 4.93 5.34 Tampa Bay Rays 62 100 .383 35 54 74 673 802 4.14 4.95 Central Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Cleveland Indians 101 61 .623 86 105 811 618 5.01 3.81 Minnesota Twins 86 76 .531 15 72 93 815 784 5.03 4.84 Chicago White Sox 77 85 .475 24 66 88 766 797 4.78 4.92 Kansas City Royals 64 98 .395 37 55 76 658 846 4.06 5.22 Detroit Tigers 60 102 .370 41 52 70 691 926 4.27 5.72 West Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Houston Astros 101 61 .623 86 105 887 677 5.48 4.18 Los Angeles Angels 84 78 .519 17 75 94 766 736 4.73 4.54 Seattle Mariners 82 80 .506 19 71 92 768 724 4.73 4.73 Oakland Athletics 77 85 .475 24 65 85 741 791 4.47 4.76 Texas Rangers 75 87 .463 26 63 85 731 804 4.49 4.93 Wins Losses Pct AL Composite 1217 1213 .501 Wins Losses MLB Totals 2430 2430 DIVISIONS W L Pct AL East Composite 412 398 .509 AL Central Composite 388 422 .479 AL West Composite 417 393 .515 AL Composite Runs Scored 11649 AL Composite Runs Allowed 11612 |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 26, 2018 19:33:46 GMT -5
NL Update in the next couple of days. Don't worry. I'm not very accurate, but there will be no bill for anyone to pay. And, I am no less accurate than all the other "esteemed" pundits and long-time publications! Remember around the same time that "Major League" was released? Sports Illustrated touted the Indians in 1987 to win the AL pennant, just scant two years after "Mighty Joe" Charboneau was named AL rookie of the year and hailed as a next generation slugger. Was never heard from again but it could not stop the excitement. The mag was actually only six years off, but Joe Carter was not on the Indians' roster any more then. He won the back-to-back title for the Blue Jays before the strike nearly destroyed the national pastime. And, Cory Snyder was about as big a bust as "Mighty Joe"...just not yet. The Tribe actually scored a lot of runs, but the pitching was, well, it was pathetic. Don't think I ever produced a "faux pau" THAT big! Don't beleeeebe it? Look for yourself! www.news-herald.com/article/HR/20120416/NEWS/304169971 |
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Mr mastodon farm
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Post by Mr mastodon farm on Mar 28, 2018 18:30:11 GMT -5
NL Update in the next couple of days. Don't worry. I'm not very accurate, but there will be no bill for anyone to pay. And, I am no less accurate than all the other "esteemed" pundits and long-time publications! Remember around the same time that "Major League" was released? Sports Illustrated touted the Indians in 1987 to win the AL pennant, just scant two years after "Mighty Joe" Charboneau was named AL rookie of the year and hailed as a next generation slugger. Was never heard from again but it could not stop the excitement. The mag was actually only six years off, but Joe Carter was not on the Indians' roster any more then. He won the back-to-back title for the Blue Jays before the strike nearly destroyed the national pastime. And, Cory Snyder was about as big a bust as "Mighty Joe"...just not yet. The Tribe actually scored a lot of runs, but the pitching was, well, it was pathetic. Don't think I ever produced a "faux pau" THAT big! Don't beleeeebe it? Look for yourself! www.news-herald.com/article/HR/20120416/NEWS/304169971funny how the covering of the game evolves not one mention of Snyder's .729 ops |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Mar 29, 2018 9:08:46 GMT -5
Here is the updated spread sheet on Opening Day March 29, 2018. I still have the same teams making the playoffs as I posted in early March. But the Phillies signed Jake Arrieta since, and while he's not the same starting pitcher that he was in 2015, he boosts that club to .500. The Giants "is" dead, deals and all as first Jeff Samardzija and then Madison Bumgarner suffer major injuries in spring training. Mets over Cardinals in the Wild Card playoff. Divisional round goes Nationals over Mets 4 games to 2. The Cubs turn the tables on the Dodgers again to avenge last season's loss in the NLCS. The Washington Nationals finally win their first NL pennant in seven games over the Cubs before the Astros bounce them in six games in the World Series. National League East Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Washington Nationals 99 63 .611 83 103 827 658 5.10 4.06 New York Mets 87 75 .537 12 74 95 716 642 4.42 3.96 Philadelphia Phillies 81 81 .500 18 69 89 760 742 4.69 4.58 Atlanta Braves 76 86 .475 23 68 86 782 833 4.83 5.14 Miami Marlins 56 106 .346 43 50 69 635 874 3.90 5.40 Central Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Chicago Cubs 96 66 .586 80 101 828 676 5.09 4.17 St. Louis Cardinals 88 74 .543 8 76 96 794 719 4.90 4.44 Milwaukee Brewers 85 77 .525 10 72 92 808 772 4.99 4.77 Cincinnati Reds 70 92 .432 24 59 80 796 860 4.91 5.31 Pittsburgh Pirates 63 99 .389 33 54 75 611 835 3.87 5.15 West Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Los Angeles Dodgers 95 67 .586 80 101 756 644 4.67 3.96 Colorado Rockies 86 76 .531 11 70 92 782 749 4.83 4.69 Arizona Diamondbacks 82 80 .512 13 67 89 722 680 4.46 4.20 San Francisco Giants 74 88 .457 17 64 87 712 762 4.40 4.70 San Diego Padres 72 90 .444 26 59 82 697 814 4.32 5.02 Wins Losses Pct NL Composite 1213 1217 .499 W L Pct NL East Composite 399 411 .493 NL Central Composite 405 405 .500 NL West Composite 409 401 .505 Nl Composite Runs Scored 11220 NL Composite Runs Allowed 11255 |
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Post by Zig on Jul 31, 2018 16:47:32 GMT -5
About ten years ago, I was given an assignment in a Statistics course, studying in grad school. We were asked to develop a statistical model in Excel based on "numerical events" that had to balance. There also had to be at least two parts to balance in "agreement". I figured that nothing could be a more perfect example than the standings in a baseball season, including runs scored vs runs against, and wins and losses. Since then, I have liked to put one together prior to the start of the season. Sure, I could just predict the order that the teams would finish in, but the exercise makes you a bit more disciplined. I start by making a calculated guess on each team's final record and plug the numbers all in. Then I have to make adjustments so that the composite records of all the teams equal .500. Then I do much the same with "expected runs scored and runs against". I also include my "floor" and "ceiling" baselines for minimum and maximum expected wins per team. Might sound a bit "geeky" but honestly math was my poorest subject. Swear to God. Anyway, here goes my predicted finish for the AL. A little "disclaimer" - None of this "balancing" will improve the accuracy of my forecast! Next page will be NL. ______________________________________________________ GOD it was a "cow" to line the columns up following the "Copy and Paste"! 2018 Predicted Major League Standings American League East Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 83 103 857 695 5.29 4.29 New York Yankees 95 67 .586 3 79 102 880 717 5.43 4.43 To***to Blue Jays 80 82 .494 18 65 87 745 770 4.64 4.75 Baltimore Orioles 77 85 .475 21 62 84 799 850 4.93 5.25 Tampa Bay Rays 62 100 .383 36 54 74 670 798 4.14 4.93 Central Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Cleveland Indians 101 61 .623 86 105 811 608 5.01 3.75 Minnesota Twins 84 78 .519 17 70 92 806 784 4.98 4.84 Chicago White Sox 77 85 .475 24 66 88 766 797 4.73 4.92 Kansas City Royals 64 98 .395 37 55 76 655 824 4.04 5.09 Detroit Tigers 59 103 .364 42 52 70 688 926 4.25 5.72 West Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Houston Astros 101 61 .623 86 105 874 687 5.40 4.24 Los Angeles Angels 87 75 .537 14 75 97 728 696 4.49 4.30 Seattle Mariners 82 80 .506 19 71 92 733 720 4.52 4.44 Oakland Athletics 77 85 .475 24 65 85 724 771 4.47 4.76 Texas Rangers 75 87 .463 26 63 85 728 799 4.49 4.93 Wins Losses Pct AL Composite 1219 1211 .501 Wins Losses MLB Totals 2430 2430 DIVISIONS W L Pct AL East Composite 412 398 .509 AL Central Composite 385 425 .475 AL West Composite 422 388 .521 AL Composite Runs Scored 11464 AL Composite Runs Allowed 11442 waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyy off! heh heh |
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tigertowner 68
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Post by tigertowner 68 on Jul 31, 2018 20:57:29 GMT -5
About ten years ago, I was given an assignment in a Statistics course, studying in grad school. We were asked to develop a statistical model in Excel based on "numerical events" that had to balance. There also had to be at least two parts to balance in "agreement". I figured that nothing could be a more perfect example than the standings in a baseball season, including runs scored vs runs against, and wins and losses. Since then, I have liked to put one together prior to the start of the season. Sure, I could just predict the order that the teams would finish in, but the exercise makes you a bit more disciplined. I start by making a calculated guess on each team's final record and plug the numbers all in. Then I have to make adjustments so that the composite records of all the teams equal .500. Then I do much the same with "expected runs scored and runs against". I also include my "floor" and "ceiling" baselines for minimum and maximum expected wins per team. Might sound a bit "geeky" but honestly math was my poorest subject. Swear to God. Anyway, here goes my predicted finish for the AL. A little "disclaimer" - None of this "balancing" will improve the accuracy of my forecast! Next page will be NL. ______________________________________________________ GOD it was a "cow" to line the columns up following the "Copy and Paste"! 2018 Predicted Major League Standings American League East Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Boston Red Sox 98 64 .605 83 103 857 695 5.29 4.29 New York Yankees 95 67 .586 3 79 102 880 717 5.43 4.43 To***to Blue Jays 80 82 .494 18 65 87 745 770 4.64 4.75 Baltimore Orioles 77 85 .475 21 62 84 799 850 4.93 5.25 Tampa Bay Rays 62 100 .383 36 54 74 670 798 4.14 4.93 Central Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Cleveland Indians 101 61 .623 86 105 811 608 5.01 3.75 Minnesota Twins 84 78 .519 17 70 92 806 784 4.98 4.84 Chicago White Sox 77 85 .475 24 66 88 766 797 4.73 4.92 Kansas City Royals 64 98 .395 37 55 76 655 824 4.04 5.09 Detroit Tigers 59 103 .364 42 52 70 688 926 4.25 5.72 West Division Win Range Wins Losses Pct GB Floor Ceiling RF RA RPG RAPG Houston Astros 101 61 .623 86 105 874 687 5.40 4.24 Los Angeles Angels 87 75 .537 14 75 97 728 696 4.49 4.30 Seattle Mariners 82 80 .506 19 71 92 733 720 4.52 4.44 Oakland Athletics 77 85 .475 24 65 85 724 771 4.47 4.76 Texas Rangers 75 87 .463 26 63 85 728 799 4.49 4.93 Wins Losses Pct AL Composite 1219 1211 .501 Wins Losses MLB Totals 2430 2430 DIVISIONS W L Pct AL East Composite 412 398 .509 AL Central Composite 385 425 .475 AL West Composite 422 388 .521 AL Composite Runs Scored 11464 AL Composite Runs Allowed 11442 waaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyy off! heh heh It is actually a lot better at the top than the bottom. The only team that I had in the playoffs here that is out as we speak is the Angels. Sub them for the Mariners and I have it pegged!  |
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This team can realistically win not many more games than they did last year (I have them winning one less and missing the playoffs) or they could fall to leading only the dismantled Detroit Tigers.
