Post by Mr mastodon farm on Jan 31, 2018 12:23:23 GMT -5
from baseball prospectus
Titans have battled throughout history. Godzilla vs Mothra. Alien vs Predator. Bette vs Joan (No? Wrong forum? My bad.).
Today, add Bryant vs Machado to that list.
Batting Average
This category would look a lot tighter before Machado’s perplexing 2017 at the plate. The soon-to-be-former Oriole struggled through the first three months of 2017, limping into July with a .216/.289/.423 line. In his final 365 plate appearances, he emerged from the phone booth, full MANNY MACHADO, hitting .295/.329/.513, resuming his role as a run-production machine for the O’s. It’s probably a little lazy to merely scream “BABIP” as the reason for Machado’s poor results, but the truth is perhaps just as simple. He made more contact in the second half. Like a lot more contact. In his first 325 plate appearances, Machado maintained a contact rate a little higher than 75 percent, slightly below league average. Down the stretch, he added nearly 9 percentage points of contact, slashing almost 4 percentage points from his swinging strike rate in the process. As it turns out, more contact and fewer whiffs can lead to a higher batting average.
Whereas Machado’s 2017 season had more twists and turns than a season of Lost, Bryant and his pretty baby blues was his consistently great, boring self. The 26-year-old hit .295 while scaling back on the strikeouts for the third consecutive season. Machado is good, and should be a solid batting average asset in 2018, but Bryant is better, and most importantly, more consistent. Advantage: Bryant
On-Base Percentage
Normally I like to wax poetic and say a bunch of smart things (fine—things—I say things) when breaking down a category. For the sake of you, dear reader (and my word count), let’s make this one short and sweet. Machado is a superstar, but sure doesn’t draw walks like one, never eclipsing a 10 percent walk rate in his career. Bryant, on the other hand, has never been below 10.7 percent, and is coming off a 2017 season where he posted an OBP over .400. This one is easy. Advantage: Bryant
Home Runs
Here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. Bryant has averaged 31 homers in his three seasons on the North Side, peaking with 39 dingers in 2016. While that 2016 approach might not have been a concerted effort by Bryant to launch balls over the ivy, it did lead to more fly balls from the slugger and the highest pull rate of his career by over 5 percentage points. He reverted back to spraying the ball to all fields in 2017, and although it led to fewer home runs, it also led to more doubles and a higher batting average. Despite its reputation, Wrigley Field is actually a fairly pitcher-friendly park (when the wind isn’t blowing out), especially when it comes to right-handed power. There’s no doubt Bryant has the capacity to hit 40 plus homers at his peak, however it might not be the best strategy for his approach.
In 2015, Machado decided to hit more fly balls. Guess what? In what I’m sure was a super coincidence, he also started to hit more home runs. The 25-year-old has averaged 35 homers per year in the last three seasons, all while maintaining a supremely manageable HR/FB rate of around 16 percent. Even with his first half struggles, Machado routinely hit the ball really, really hard, cracking the top 12 in just about every Statcast exit velocity category. In addition, Machado will enjoy a significant advantage in home park (for this season, or at least half of this season), as Camden Yards was the second most generous park for right-handed power in 2017. In all likelihood, this one will be extremely close, but I’ll give the slight edge to the dude in a Contract Year(™). Advantage: Machado
Runs Scored/RBIs
Bryant was decidedly less clutch in 2017, failing to eclipse the 75 RBI mark after averaging over 100 RBIs in his first two seasons (j/k—RBI are dumb). Even though his RBI total left something to be desired, Bryant crossed the plate 111 times last season, eight most in the league. He’ll once again be hitting atop a fearsome Cub lineup, with his obvious gifts at the plate and his elite ability to get on base will lead to elite run production once again in 2018.
Speaking of elite run production, Manny Machado… hello. The third baseman (for now) put up his third consecutive season of at least 176 combined runs and RBIs. The numbers are solid, even though they dipped pretty significantly from the previous two seasons. Machado’s aversion to drawing walks really hurt his ability to score runs last year, as the batting average dip significantly cut into his primary option for getting on base. While he should have more opportunities to score in 2018 by virtue of batting average improvements, it’s a riskier avenue to traverse. Further, the inconsistent O’s offense paired with the uncertainty as to where Machado will be spending his post-July season make it difficult to give him the nod. Advantage: Bryant
Stolen Bases
If Bryant’s stolen base totals were a WWE wrestler, they would be Dean Ambrose—sometimes good, sometimes less than good, but always some degree of fine. Last season Bryant swiped seven bases, but wasn’t particularly efficient, getting thrown out on five occasions. He managed eight steals in 2016, but again was caught five times. The fact that Bryant isn’t particularly good at base theft will likely cut into his potential, and his slowly declining output has reflected that over the past three seasons.
If you like to be massively frustrated by stolen bases, Machado is the guy for you. After snagging 20 bags in 2015, he matched my stolen-base output the following season, with a whopping zero. A year ago he stole nine bases in 13 attempts, which is, well, better than literally nothing. Still, there’s potential, and all things equal, I’ll take the potential for 20 with the risk of zero. I guess. Advantage: Machado
Playing Time/Injury Risk
Both of these guys are Downey Jr.’s (Iron Men, get it? OK, maybe that one won’t catch on), logging at least 150 games in each of the previous three seasons. Additionally, they’re both the best player on their respective teams, so playing time obviously isn’t in question. One interesting factor here, however, is Buck Showalter’s recent announcement that Machado will enter the 2018 season as the team’s starting shortstop. Without much else differentiating these two in this category, the shortstop eligibility is enough to put Machado on top. Advantage: Machado
Overall
These dudes are stars. You will be happy with either one on your team. There’s a little uncertainty with Machado’s status on the squad, but a nice bounceback from a weird 2017 should be in store. That said, Bryant had a “down” season from the casual fan’s perspective and in some ways improved on his 2016 MVP campaign. He’s very good and is still getting better. Winner: Kris Bryant
Titans have battled throughout history. Godzilla vs Mothra. Alien vs Predator. Bette vs Joan (No? Wrong forum? My bad.).
Today, add Bryant vs Machado to that list.
Batting Average
This category would look a lot tighter before Machado’s perplexing 2017 at the plate. The soon-to-be-former Oriole struggled through the first three months of 2017, limping into July with a .216/.289/.423 line. In his final 365 plate appearances, he emerged from the phone booth, full MANNY MACHADO, hitting .295/.329/.513, resuming his role as a run-production machine for the O’s. It’s probably a little lazy to merely scream “BABIP” as the reason for Machado’s poor results, but the truth is perhaps just as simple. He made more contact in the second half. Like a lot more contact. In his first 325 plate appearances, Machado maintained a contact rate a little higher than 75 percent, slightly below league average. Down the stretch, he added nearly 9 percentage points of contact, slashing almost 4 percentage points from his swinging strike rate in the process. As it turns out, more contact and fewer whiffs can lead to a higher batting average.
Whereas Machado’s 2017 season had more twists and turns than a season of Lost, Bryant and his pretty baby blues was his consistently great, boring self. The 26-year-old hit .295 while scaling back on the strikeouts for the third consecutive season. Machado is good, and should be a solid batting average asset in 2018, but Bryant is better, and most importantly, more consistent. Advantage: Bryant
On-Base Percentage
Normally I like to wax poetic and say a bunch of smart things (fine—things—I say things) when breaking down a category. For the sake of you, dear reader (and my word count), let’s make this one short and sweet. Machado is a superstar, but sure doesn’t draw walks like one, never eclipsing a 10 percent walk rate in his career. Bryant, on the other hand, has never been below 10.7 percent, and is coming off a 2017 season where he posted an OBP over .400. This one is easy. Advantage: Bryant
Home Runs
Here’s where it gets a bit more interesting. Bryant has averaged 31 homers in his three seasons on the North Side, peaking with 39 dingers in 2016. While that 2016 approach might not have been a concerted effort by Bryant to launch balls over the ivy, it did lead to more fly balls from the slugger and the highest pull rate of his career by over 5 percentage points. He reverted back to spraying the ball to all fields in 2017, and although it led to fewer home runs, it also led to more doubles and a higher batting average. Despite its reputation, Wrigley Field is actually a fairly pitcher-friendly park (when the wind isn’t blowing out), especially when it comes to right-handed power. There’s no doubt Bryant has the capacity to hit 40 plus homers at his peak, however it might not be the best strategy for his approach.
In 2015, Machado decided to hit more fly balls. Guess what? In what I’m sure was a super coincidence, he also started to hit more home runs. The 25-year-old has averaged 35 homers per year in the last three seasons, all while maintaining a supremely manageable HR/FB rate of around 16 percent. Even with his first half struggles, Machado routinely hit the ball really, really hard, cracking the top 12 in just about every Statcast exit velocity category. In addition, Machado will enjoy a significant advantage in home park (for this season, or at least half of this season), as Camden Yards was the second most generous park for right-handed power in 2017. In all likelihood, this one will be extremely close, but I’ll give the slight edge to the dude in a Contract Year(™). Advantage: Machado
Runs Scored/RBIs
Bryant was decidedly less clutch in 2017, failing to eclipse the 75 RBI mark after averaging over 100 RBIs in his first two seasons (j/k—RBI are dumb). Even though his RBI total left something to be desired, Bryant crossed the plate 111 times last season, eight most in the league. He’ll once again be hitting atop a fearsome Cub lineup, with his obvious gifts at the plate and his elite ability to get on base will lead to elite run production once again in 2018.
Speaking of elite run production, Manny Machado… hello. The third baseman (for now) put up his third consecutive season of at least 176 combined runs and RBIs. The numbers are solid, even though they dipped pretty significantly from the previous two seasons. Machado’s aversion to drawing walks really hurt his ability to score runs last year, as the batting average dip significantly cut into his primary option for getting on base. While he should have more opportunities to score in 2018 by virtue of batting average improvements, it’s a riskier avenue to traverse. Further, the inconsistent O’s offense paired with the uncertainty as to where Machado will be spending his post-July season make it difficult to give him the nod. Advantage: Bryant
Stolen Bases
If Bryant’s stolen base totals were a WWE wrestler, they would be Dean Ambrose—sometimes good, sometimes less than good, but always some degree of fine. Last season Bryant swiped seven bases, but wasn’t particularly efficient, getting thrown out on five occasions. He managed eight steals in 2016, but again was caught five times. The fact that Bryant isn’t particularly good at base theft will likely cut into his potential, and his slowly declining output has reflected that over the past three seasons.
If you like to be massively frustrated by stolen bases, Machado is the guy for you. After snagging 20 bags in 2015, he matched my stolen-base output the following season, with a whopping zero. A year ago he stole nine bases in 13 attempts, which is, well, better than literally nothing. Still, there’s potential, and all things equal, I’ll take the potential for 20 with the risk of zero. I guess. Advantage: Machado
Playing Time/Injury Risk
Both of these guys are Downey Jr.’s (Iron Men, get it? OK, maybe that one won’t catch on), logging at least 150 games in each of the previous three seasons. Additionally, they’re both the best player on their respective teams, so playing time obviously isn’t in question. One interesting factor here, however, is Buck Showalter’s recent announcement that Machado will enter the 2018 season as the team’s starting shortstop. Without much else differentiating these two in this category, the shortstop eligibility is enough to put Machado on top. Advantage: Machado
Overall
These dudes are stars. You will be happy with either one on your team. There’s a little uncertainty with Machado’s status on the squad, but a nice bounceback from a weird 2017 should be in store. That said, Bryant had a “down” season from the casual fan’s perspective and in some ways improved on his 2016 MVP campaign. He’s very good and is still getting better. Winner: Kris Bryant
