TOWNER's TIPSYeah, yeah. I'm second to last in correct picks through Week Eleven by all you sorry suckas.
Suck it Trebek. Now is the time we separate the "wheat from the chaff", the "real from the fake", the "men from the boys", you get my drift!
So for the next 6 weeks, the expanded picks on the old cowskin will appear. YES COWSKIN, I'll separate from the rest of you right here and now. I freaking know that footballs are made of cowskin, not pigskin...so there.
All of you making fun of "Towner's Tips", take this before we begin.
Now let's get down to business at hand.
Thursday afternoon Philadelphia Eagles (4-6) at Detroit Lions (3-7)Normally I wouldn't use this much space for this "game" but I am from here and this is their big holiday showcase. There is really nothing that either of these frauds can do well. What is more "underwhelming"? The Eagles getting the home faithful so disgusted (and likely real intoxicated and mean) in a 45-17 pasting by upstart Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers just Sunday, that they are thinking about not merely throwing snowballs at Santa Claus , but instead lynching the poor old red suited one when he no doubt is at their next home game December 13 vs the Bills? Or the Lions making Londoners spew their afternoon tea all over the persons in front of them at Wembley vs the Chiefs in a 45-10 week eight debacle? No analysis here except the Lions at least have a pulse again and are at home for their traditional Holiday tilt. Philly is 25th in total defense and dropping. Recent history shows that when Detroit is hosting somebody good like New England or the Colts when they were healthy and had a viable Manning - they get blown out. When they are playing some dregs like Philadelphia, they win.
Philadelphia Eagles 16
Detroit Lions 28Thursday afternoon Carolina Panthers (10-0) at Dallas Cowboys (3-7)Those of you that toughed out the early game should really enjoy this matchup. What? 3-7 facing 10-0? Yes. Tony Romo returned last week after missing seven games with that collarbone and gave the team a huge lift, even though he was clearly rusty from the layoff. Dallas lost all seven games with him out, but the team never quit. The word is that the Carolina defense will overwhelm Dallas, but if you look at how the teams rank defensively, there is hardly a gulf between them, except the Panthers are definitely better at causing turnovers.
Carolina Dallas
Total Defense 4(322.8) 11 (335.8)
Pass Defense 7 (228.3) 10 (231.1)
Rush Defense 8 (94.5) 15 (104.7)
Points Allowed 5 (19.1) 15 (22.8)
Interceptions 1 (15) 22 (6)
Fumbles Recovered 7 (6) 27 (1)
The point is though, Carolina is an excellent defensive team, but Dallas has hung really tough given the total impotence of their attack without Romo and Dez Bryant for much of the season. Now Bryant is back to near top speed and Romo has had a game to shake off that rust. So I am going to call for the upset. Carolina has to lose sometime and Dallas really needs this game to realistically still have a shot, even in the muck that is the NFC East. The home field will help a lot too.
Carolina Panthers 17
Dallas Cowboys 23Thursday night Chicago Bears (4-6) at Green Bay Packers (7-3)Chicago is 19th in total defense and the Packers are 12th. The problem I see here though is that the Bears are too banged up and inconsistent on offense. Alshon Jeffrey makes a world of difference when he at Jay Cutler's disposal, but a groin injury is still nagging and he will be, at best, a game time decision to play. Matt Forte is closer, but the smart thing there is to stick with rookie Jeremy Langford anyhow.The Packers are 23rd in run D, and the younger legs could help the attack more than a banged up Forte could. Green Bay continues to underwhelm at receiver. The sloppy route running has made the usual "All World" Aaron Rodgers appear pedestrian frequently as of late. Eddie Lacy may be on the verge of a turnaround at least. Chicago does not appear to have enough to beat the Pack at Lambeau.
Chicago Bears 20
Green Bay Packers 33Sunday afternoon Minnesota Vikings (7-3) at Atlanta Falcons (6-4)What happened to the formerly undefeated Falcons (5-0, now 6-4)? It appeared that HC Dan Quinn was the missing link, especially given the freefall of last year under Mike Smith. But there is just something about this team where the sum of its parts constantly come up as less than its individual talents. I mean, Quinn has improved the defense, Devonta Freeman is still having a career year at RB, Julio Jones' production has slowed but is still at the top of WRs in the league. Well, as much as I hate to do it, I must drop this mainly at the feet of QB Matt Ryan. The numbers he posts overall look good. Except the 15 TD passes rank 15th (tied with much maligned Matthew Stafford who has a bad o-line and no running game) and 10 INT (only 6 starters have thrown more). And he has played worse as the season has gone on. The Vikings, meanwhile, had their 5 game winning snapped at home against the rival Packers. They have a significant problem Sunday. The Falcons are #1 in rushing defense. Minnesota generally excels with big games by Adrian Peterson. Teddy Bridgewater is improving but without AP ripping off chunks, he scares nobody. The Vikings are 6th in passing defense but this week Matty Ice gets his groove back just enough to get the Birds back in the win column. If not at home this week for him, likely not much for the rest of the season for this band of underachievers from the ATL.
Minnesota Vikings 20
Atlanta Falcons 24Sunday afternoon St. Louis Rams (4-6) at Cincinnati Bengals (8-2)Much like their QB trading partner (the Eagles), the Rams can't get out of their own way under center. The team still has excellent defense and impact rookie rusher Todd Gurley, but that passing game is so woeful that it has made the team totally predictable on O and left little running room for the phenom RB. Tavon Austin is a receiver that puts up as many big plays rushing as he does receiving because of the QB quandary. Meanwhile folks are getting edgy again in the Queen City. Relax, at least for now everyone. Sure they have lost two straight but at least the Red Rifle (Andy Dalton) returned against a real good AZ defense and the Red Ryder BB gun split. STL far too one dimensional to win vs a team that really needs to get back on track.
St. Louis Rams 13
Cincinnati Bengals 30Sunday afternoon New Orleans Saints (4-6) at Houston Texans (5-5)The worst defense in the league (NO) vs the one of the worst offenses (Hou). One of the better offenses (NO) vs one of the better defenses (Hou). What is in store here? I say that yes the Saints offense is pretty good but it can be very inconsistent. Especially vs a good defense when it is playing at home. Enter the Texans. And yes, that Texans offense sputters, but DeAndre Hopkins is a game breaker. Just last week he knocked Darrelle Revis off his island and into the drink with 2 TD catches...
New Orleans Saints 14
Houston Texans 37Sunday afternoon Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-5)These teams are both 5-5 (seems like 75% of the league is either 5-5, or one game removed either way). It is a home game for the Colts. Ordinarily I'd be reluctant to pick the visitor but I pick them by a bunch. For a rookie, Jameis Winston has been pretty remarkable, save for the opener. Doug Martin looks rejuvenated at RB. Vincent Jackson is healthy enough and productive enough to give Mike Evans a better shot at catching long balls. Jackson, a burner, is no slouch at that himself. Matt Hasselbeck has been outstanding with Andrew Luck out. But Colts #27 ranked D and sickly o-line dooms them. Teams headed in opposite directions.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43 Indianapolis Colts 24
Sunday afternoon San Diego Chargers (2-8) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-6)I have little to say about this one. It is the most insignificant matchup of the day. The Chargers "charger" shorted out weeks ago. Jags by default.
San Diego Chargers 19
Jacksonville Jaguars 35Sunday afternoon Buffalo Bills (5-5) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-5)That 5-5 theme again. The two have been consistently inconsistent all year. Chiefs start 1-5. Bills all over the place. There is little difference in the teams except one that I can see...Kansas City continues to have no passing game. For a few weeks before he got hurt, Jeremy Maclin was clicking but has had near zero impact the last four weeks. Alex Smith is also wasting a talent in Travis Kelce at TE. Buffalo is 10th in rush defense and improving. That will limit Charchandrick West enough to get by, especially given the lack of any air threat. Sammy Watkins needs to provide a spark here for the Bills though, or all bets are off.
Buffalo Bills 20 Kansas City Chiefs 17
Sunday afternoon Miami Dolphins (4-6) at New York Jets (5-5)Yet another example of a game that can go either way. If Ryan Tannehill is anything more than the little tease of a girl that runs away like a little doe when you think you are getting close...then he needs to get going. His numbers look good on the surface its just the inconsistent play week by week. He should be getting more production out of Jarvis Landry and Rishard Matthews. And Lamar Miller does not get a pass either. He's either a game wrecker or he wrecks the game. The Jets are in a mess at QB and would be thrilled to have Tannehill. Chris Ivory is a bruiser that has gotten bruised more by the week. Darrelle Revis has lost a step at last. All signs point to Miami. Think I'll take the Jets at home...that thing about "inconsistency" ringing LOUD
Miami Dolphins 20
New York Jets 25Sunday afternoon Oakland Raiders (4-6) at Tennessee Titans (2-8)After the Raiders stunk up the joint in Detroit, I find them irrelevant again. Speaking of irrelevant, we have the Titans...
Oakland Raiders 22
Tennessee Titans 28Sunday afternoon New York Giants (5-5) at Washington Redskins (4-6)The Giants have had a much better pass rush with the return of Mordecai (Three Finger) Brown, err...I mean Jason (Three Finger) Pierre Paul. Washington was looking much better than anybody has reason to expect before that disaster at Carolina last Sunday. This game should be a walk for the Giants, but it probably won't be. They play down to the level of competition too much. The Giants continue to struggle on the ground and while the 'Skins can be had in pass defense, they aren't awful, ranking 12th. Ditto the Redskins struggling on the ground. The Giants are a sieve on pass defense still though (32nd), three finger or not. Expect a lot of air traffic and a narrow escape for the G-men.
New York Giants 41 Washington Redskins 29
Sunday afternoon Arizona Cardinals (8-2) at San Francisco 49ers (3-7)Mismatch of the day, even as a road game. Carson Palmer has that O humming and the team ranks 3rd in total defense. Niners' brass trying to lure Steve Young out of the ESPN booth to step in at QB. Not really. Might be a good idea though.
Arizona Cardinals 44 San Francisco 49ers 10
Sunday afternoon Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) at Seattle Seahawks (5-5)The demise of the 'Hawks defense is greatly exaggerated. They are 2nd in total defense and pass defense. What is not exaggerated at all is the total demise of the offense in general, and the o-line in particular. The only real threat for Seattle on offense is a running back but its not who a lot of people think it is. Thomas Rawls is out of the same school that produced the Steelers' Antonio Brown (Central Michigan) and, like Brown, is proving to be the "real deal".
It won't be enough though. The Steelers are still middle of the pack overall defensively, but that is due to a slow start. Their defense has improved incrementally every week for six weeks now. Ben Roethlisberger is closer than he has been to full health all season and he has a host of weapons in WRs Brown, WR Martavius Bryant and RB DeAngelo Williams.
Pittsburgh Steelers 28 Seattle Seahawks 21
Sunday night New England Patriots (10-0) at Denver Broncos (8-2)On the surface this looks like a premier matchup. If we had a healthy and still viable Peyton Manning, it would be. We don't. I could analyze and break this game down ad nauseum, but it all boils down to this. Do you believe that upstart Broncos QB Brock Osweiler is going to bring down Tom Brady and a team that is undefeated in week 12? Well do you, punk???
New England Patriots 24 Denver Broncos 10
Monday night Baltimore Ravens (2-8) at Cleveland Browns (2-8)Dumpster Bowl II. DB I was the last TNF tilt, Titans at Jaguars. This one is worse. Let me have "These are the two starting QBs for the Ravens and Browns" Alex for $2,000...
Baltimore Ravens 13
Cleveland Browns 14Read more:
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