The Reds figure to be among the offseason’s most fascinating teams. They want to contend in 2020, plan to increase payroll, and have a few areas on the roster in need of upgrade. The lineup figures to be the main focus, as Cincinnati finished 25th in baseball in runs despite a hitter-friendly home park. More specifically, the Reds could look to bolster their catching, middle infield and corner outfield mix. Alternatively, they could return Nick Senzel to second base full-time, although they’d then be left parsing through a sparse center field market. With those needs in mind, the MLBTR staff forecast Cincinnati coming away with Yasmani Grandal and Didi Gregorius at the outset of the offseason. Grandal, of course, has since signed with the White Sox, although the Reds have been linked to Gregorius this month.

However, the club certainly doesn’t appear ready to pigeonhole itself into searching for offense. They were tied to Zack Wheeler, the number three starting pitching option on the market, this week. While bolstering a starting rotation that already projects as one of the league’s best might seem questionable for a team with so many offensive holes, there’s merit to the idea of acquiring the best players possible and sorting out the puzzle pieces later. Adding Wheeler, or one of the many other starting pitchers available, would make the Reds better, even if it doesn’t address the team’s most glaring weakness.

So where should the Reds turn? In addition to Gregorius and Wheeler, they’ve checked in on any number of free agents in the early going. To some extent, they were in on Grandal before he went to Chicago, although it isn’t clear if talks got very far. They’ve checked in on Marcell Ozuna and Nicholas Castellanos, each of whom would be a conventional fit for an offense-needy club. Given the players to whom they’ve been linked, it’s little surprise Cincinnati isn’t overly concerned about forfeiting draft pick compensation to sign a player attached to a qualifying offer.

Speculatively speaking, even Mike Moustakas could make sense, assuming Cincinnati’s front office is comfortable with him as an option at second base. The Reds’ interest in Wheeler indicates we shouldn’t entirely rule out a starter like Madison Bumgarner or Hyun-Jin Ryu, either, even if neither hurler has yet been connected to the organization.

Options abound, but it seems likely the Reds will make some notable splash this winter. Where should they turn as they look to snap a six-year playoff drought?

Phillies Bag Wheeler (from MLB Trade Rumors)

1:38pm: Wheeler’s guarantee is $118MM, Passan tweets.

1:28pm: Wheeler’s contract will guarantee him just shy of $120MM, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia tweets.

1:21pm: The Phillies have reached an agreement to sign free-agent right-hander Zack Wheeler, Marc Carig of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). The Jet Sports Management client will take home more than $100MM, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jeff Passan tweets that it’s a five-year pact.

Zack Wheeler | Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Wheeler, 29, has been arguably the most in-demand pitcher on the free agent market early in the offseason. While he’s regarded as the third-best arm on the market behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, that duo’s sky-high earning power priced a number of pitching-needy teams out of the market from the outset. Wheeler, however, has been viewed as a more affordable pitcher with high-end stuff — one whom many believe can still take another step forward in the years to come.

Of course, that’s not to say that the current iteration of Wheeler isn’t a quality arm; he very much is. Over his past 55 Major League starts, the right-hander has worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. He’s distanced himself from Tommy John surgery and the ensuing complications that wiped out nearly two full seasons of his career, combining to make 60 starts dating back to Opening Day 2018.

Wheeler was also the second-hardest-throwing starter on the open market, with his career-best 96.7 mph average heater trailing only Gerrit Cole. Beyond that, he possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast). Given that he’s played in front of the worst defenses in the game over the past couple of seasons, there’s a belief that he could excel with a change of scenery, although it’s of course worth noting that the Philadelphia defense has had its own share of struggles over that same time.

Rotation help has been the clear top priority for the Phillies this winter, as their collective group of starters was a decidedly subpar group in 2019. Philadelphia entered the season with Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta anchoring the starting staff. After a 2018-19 offseason that focused largely on augmenting the lineup, the Phils leaned heavily on younger, inexperienced arms like Zach Eflin, Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez in the rotation.

Of that trio, only Eflin yielded any real dividends, however. The 25-year-old proved a serviceable fourth starter with a 4.13 ERA over 28 starts (32 total appearances), while Pivetta and Velasquez combined for an ERA well north of 5.00. Meanwhile, Arrieta struggled through his worst season since his breakout and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow. Even Nola, who finished third in 2018 NL Cy Young voting, took a notable step back in 2019. The end result was a Phillies starting staff that finished 17th in ERA (4.64), 24th in FIP (4.91) and 16th in xFIP (4.59) last year.

Wheeler will now slot into the Phillies’ rotation alongside Nola, Eflin and Arrieta — with the hope that the removal of the bone spur through which Arrieta pitched in 2019 will help to bring about a rejuvenation of sorts. There’s still room for another rotation addition, to be sure, and there’s also room on the payroll to make that a reality. Before agreeing to terms with Wheeler, the Phils’ payroll checked in a bit shy of $150MM (including projected arbitration salaries). They’ll see Arrieta, David Robertson and the small portion of the Jay Bruce contract they’re paying all come off the books next season, lending some long-term flexibility even in spite of substantial commitments to Wheeler, Bryce Harper and others.

Earlier this offseason, Philadelphia general manager Matt Klentak voiced a preference to eventually move away from signing players who’ve rejected qualifying offers, but it appears that was far from a mandate, as the Phillies will now do so for a third consecutive winter. Signing Wheeler will cost Philadelphia its second-round pick and $500K of international bonus allotments. The Mets, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory draft pick after Competitive Balance Round B — likely in the 75 to 80 range of next year’s draft. They’ll also, of course, now be on the lookout for another starting pitcher — although they were never viewed as a serious player to re-sign Wheeler.

In the end, Wheeler also drew varying levels of interest from the White Sox, Reds, Twins, Astros, Rangers, Yankees and Blue Jays before today’s agreement with the Phils. That level of interest was largely foreseeable, but the fit with the Phillies has long been a sensible one, as was predicted on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list at the start of the offseason. Our choice of destination there proved to be spot on, though the considerable interest in Wheeler ultimately pushed his guarantee north of the five years and $100MM estimate put forth at that time.

Nick Castellanos is a BAD fit for the Giants. Can't imagine him either playing the outfield at AT&T, nor hitting many bombs.

Arizona, on the other hand, might be a decent fit. He could play first at either destination and that may be what a suitor would need to get him to agree to. The Cubs have Anthony Rizzo at first so that's not happening if he wants to remain with them.

Don't bet on anything soon anyway. He's a Bora$$ client. From MLB Trade Rumors:

12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

Washington Post yesterday-

In his first public comments since the World Series, staged in a sit-down television interview that will air in full later this month, Mark Lerner, the Washington Nationals’ managing principal owner, offered a glimpse into the club’s approach to a critical offseason.

And Nationals fans may want to cover their ears.

“We really can only afford to have one of those two guys,” Lerner told Donald Dell of NBC Sports Washington, referring to Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon, two franchise pillars testing the open market as free agents. A snippet of the interview was posted on the outlet’s website Thursday evening. “They’re huge numbers. We already have a really large payroll to begin with. So we’re pursuing them, we’re pursuing other free agents in case they decide to go elsewhere."

There is a lot to unpack here, even if Lerner is limited in what he can say. Both Strasburg and Rendon will require huge contracts, and the Nationals already have a substantial amount of money committed to a handful of players. The Nationals were always going to explore contingency plans in case Strasburg and Rendon were to leave, so that is par for the course. But the assertion that Strasburg and Rendon can’t fit on the same payroll and only one can return gives a window into how Lerner wants to handle the books moving forward.

Cot’s Baseball Contracts projects the Nationals’ 2020 payroll at just over $129 million. That leaves them with nearly $80 million under the competitive balance luxury tax threshold, which is set at $208 million for next season. These numbers could fluctuate a bit based on the final salaries for arbitration-eligible players because Cot’s is only projecting what Trea Turner, Michael A. Taylor, Joe Ross and Roenis Elías will make. Yet it does give a loose idea of the parameters Lerner is referencing.

“It’s not up to us,” Lerner told Dell. “We can give them a great offer, which we’ve done to both of those players. They’re great people, we’d be delighted if they stay, but it’s not up to us. It’s up to them. That’s why they call it free agency.”

Both Strasburg and Rendon probably are looking for deals with an average annual value that exceeds $30 million. The baseline for Strasburg’s negotiations is Max Scherzer’s contract, according to people with knowledge of discussions, which is for seven years and $210 million.

Scherzer signed that deal when he was 30. Strasburg is 31 and coming off a season in which he led the National League in innings pitched and was named World Series MVP. He opted out of the four years and $100 million remaining on his previous contract. He has met with the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers, according to those with knowledge of his free agency, and will be courted by more teams in the coming weeks.

While Rendon doesn’t have such a set starting point, his agent, Scott Boras — who also represents Strasburg — has long seen Colorado star Nolan Arenado as a viable comparison. Arenado signed an eight-year, $260 million extension with the Rockies last spring. That puts his average annual value at $32.5 million. Rendon is coming off an MVP-caliber season, and in turn, Boras expects him to beat Arenado’s contract in terms of yearly salary.

So if the Nationals want to stay beneath the tax threshold for a second straight season and avoid 20 percent overage taxes, retaining both Strasburg and Rendon would take up most of their remaining budget. That further complicates roster-building when they still need a first baseman (or two, should they opt for a platoon again), a couple of bench pieces, a few arms in the bullpen and, depending on how this shakes out, talent to replace Rendon or Strasburg or both.

But if they were willing to exceed the threshold because last season’s payroll enabled them to shrink the overage fees from 50 to 20 percent, bringing back Rendon and Strasburg becomes increasingly realistic. It’s rarely a question of what a team can “afford” in free agency. It is much more often a question of how much it’s willing to spend.

That'll really "move the needle".

Could win them one more game than without him. LOL. 

Really, the guy is a decent receiver. But you got more holes in that lineup than Dunkin has in the donuts made for this morning's rush! You spent north of $4M for him. You didn't consider Nomar Mazara at approximately $1M more? He's 24. Or took a flyer on Jonathan Villar? Jesus Aguilar? No, they are both Marlins now. Aguilar was on the waiver wire and Miami got him for nothing.